The Michigan Democrat Senate primary is Tuesday.
Democrats have a problem. The former director of Wayne County’s Dept. of Health, Human, and Veterans Services, Abdul El-Sayed, has had the lead in most of the polls at this point over Rep. Haley Stevens (MI-11).
However, the polls are also showing that Republican former Congressman Mike Rogers (MI-08) is faring better against El-Sayed in a hypothetical general election matchup. At least one big poll indicates Stevens may have a better chance against Rogers.
That might explain why the retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) endorsed her in the middle of July and came out for her again on Monday.
Retiring @SenGaryPeters (D-MI) endorses U.S. Sen. candidate @RepHaleyStevens (D-MI): "But we have to win in November. We have to keep Michigan blue. Haley Stevens is the person to do that!" pic.twitter.com/dnfOPADtNP
— CSPAN (@cspan) August 3, 2026
However, as we reported, Stevens is not helping herself. She shot herself in the foot with the people who support her explicitly because they don't want the more extreme El-Sayed. She came out indicating she would endorse him if she lost the primary, saying, "You bet!"
There were also some false rumors claiming that Stevens' pollster had said that there was "no path to victory." But then her pollster said that was a bunch of bull.
Huge incentive to push uncorroborated rumors on social media pic.twitter.com/kq1BWa9eot
— Bill Scher (@billscher) August 3, 2026
READ MORE: Haley Stevens Just Made a Big Mistake in the Michigan Senate Race
CNN's senior data analyst Harry Enten said that El-Sayed at this point is the heavy favorite, looking at the numbers. Prediction market odds also have him the "heavy favorite," and Enten said this could be "the biggest blow so far" against the Democrat establishment, if he wins.
El-Sayed is a huge favorite to deliver the biggest blow to the Dem establishment so far. What's it mean?
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) August 3, 2026
Most Dems (57%) want at least major changes in their party (vs. 33% in 2022).
Dem party energy is on the left with 80% of very liberals extremely motivated to vote in 2026. pic.twitter.com/3diKGGgawy
Enten said he thought the numbers were all a part of the larger story of Democrat voters being unhappy with Democrats. That now 57 percent want major changes to the Democrat Party.
So Enten was taking that as Democrat voters being so upset with the establishment that they want "anything else," which he interpreted as a likely vote against Stevens, who is presently serving as a member of the U.S. House. He explained the energy in the party was on the left to turn out to vote, which benefits El-Sayed. 80 percent of the "very liberal" were very motivated to turn out to vote as compared to 59 percent of the others in the party.
It remains to be seen whether Enten's analysis is accurate, and we'll find out soon. You could read Peters' endorsement a couple of ways - helping as the sitting senator, or damaging if there truly is the anti-establishment wave out there.
It will be a good indicator in a non-deep blue state just how far off the rails the Democrat Party has become. Will they give the nomination to the more radical El-Sayed?
If they do, it will likely help Rogers, but it would still be very concerning if the Democrats in Michigan nominated him.
Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
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