Putin's War, Week 127. F-16s Arrive

By streiff | 11:18 AM on August 02, 2024
The opinions expressed by contributors are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of RedState.com.
CREDIT: USAF

Here we are again for another edition of my update on Putin's War.

The major war news of the week is that F-16s finally arrived in Ukraine. In May 2023, the Biden Defense Department stopped dragging its feet and allowed NATO allies to transfer F-16s replaced by F-35 fifth-generation fighters to Ukraine; see US Announces Ukraine Will Get F-16 Fighters as Antony Blinken Takes Control of Policy – RedState. 

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Unlike some commentators, I don't see the F-16 as a game-changer, but it will force some modifications on how the Russians fight. Cruise missiles will become less important as F-16s are available to fly combat air patrol over vital Ukrainian interests. The lives of Russian strike pilots who have grown used to lobbing glide bombs into Ukraine will be much more interesting as they are challenged en route to their release points. And F-16s, if used properly, can open up all of Occupied Ukraine to airstrikes and prevent Russia from massing forces.

On the political front, the jostling between Ukraine, on the one hand, and Hungary and Slovakia, on the other, continues. At issue is a pipeline that carries Russian oil to those two countries by way of Ukraine. As I posted last week, Ukraine has announced its intention to shut down Russian oil deliveries. This, in light of the circumstances, seems like an imminently reasonable thing to do. Hungary's Orban and Slovakia's Fico lost their crap. They complained to the EU, who told them to shut up and deal with it (the EU snubs Hungary and Slovakia over Ukraine oil sanctions). The conflict has now spread due to an Orban speech that accused Poland of trading with Russia while lecturing others. Hungary also relaxed visa requirements for Russians, which, due to a unified passport system in the EU, allows Russian operatives to travel throughout the EU with ease; see Hungary’s visa move opens door to Russian spies, warns largest EU party. Orban also predicted the demise of the EU, calling into question why he wants Hungary as part of a diplomatic pact that he thinks is going down the tubes. On the other hand, Orban has assured the EU that he is done pretending to play peacemaker between Russia and Ukraine.

There was an interesting story in the New York Times that perhaps explains some of the timorousness with which Jake Sullivan and his merry band of midwits approach this war headlined Russia Warned Austin About Alleged Ukrainian Plot in Private Call.

Earlier this month, Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III received an unusual request from an unlikely caller: His Russian counterpart wanted to talk.

...

Now on July 12, Mr. Belousov was calling to relay a warning, according to two U.S. officials and another official briefed on the call: The Russians had detected a Ukrainian covert operation in the works against Russia that they believed had the Americans’ blessing. Was the Pentagon aware of the plot, Mr. Belousov asked Mr. Austin, and its potential to ratchet up tensions between Moscow and Washington?

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The fact that Austin didn't respond with, "Dude, that is between you and Kiev," makes the situation much more dangerous than it need be. It effectively makes the US the owner of every Ukrainian operation. And the line between owning the outcome and owning the planning can be very, very thin. The reluctance of Austin, Blinken, and Sullivan to impress upon the Russians that they are at war with Kiev and they can't rely on us to transmit messages about that war to Kiev is as stupid as it is inexplicable.

Ukraine received additional equipment and ammunition via the Presidential Drawdown Authority last week. I suspect the Tucker Carlson wing of the conservative movement is going to be disappointed if Trump is elected because I think their hope of a Russian victory goes away.

Here are some of my past updates.

Putin's War, Week 126. Ukraine and Hungary Square Off, More Peace Talk by Putin, and the Escalation Flop – RedState

Putin's War, Week 125. North Korea Sending Food to Russia Was Not on My Bingo Card

Putin's War, Week 124. NATO Summit Meets and Putin Levels a Hospital

Putin's War, Week 123. F-16s Wait in the Wings, More Weapons Arrive, and the Momentum Shifts – RedState

Putin's War, Week 122. Zelensky Scores, Putin Flops, and Crimea Under Fire 

Putin's War, Week 121. Putin Threatens, Zelensky Negotiates, and the White House Sends Lots of Missiles 

Putin's War, Week 120. Zelensky Gets Security Agreement With the US and the Repo Man Comes for Russia

Putin's War, Week 119.

Putin's War, Week 118. Ukraine Gets a Green Light From Biden and France Nearly Has 'Boots on the Ground' 

Putin's War, Week 117. Jake Sullivan Under Fire, ATACMS Everywhere, and the Stalemate Continues 

Putin's War, Week 116. Russian Offensive Stalls, Ukraine Discovers Wild Weasel, and Blinken Plays Guitar

For all my Ukraine War coverage, click here.

Politico-Strategic Level

Ukrainian Commandos in Africa?

There have been periodic reports over the last year that Ukrainian commandos are serving in Africa. The usual context is that they are operating against Wagner Group thugs. I've taken these reports with a grain of salt.

 Earlier this week, a Wagner Group column had its lunch money taken by Tuareg tribesmen in Mali; see Russia's Wagner Group Suffers Major Defeat at the Hands of Tuareg Rebels in Mali. The information emerging after the fight is leading me to reevaluate my position.
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At least one of the fighters seems to be melanin-challenged.

As the man said, "Wait, there's more."

Where is the Black Sea Fleet?

The situation is so obvious that even members of the Duma are forced to pay attention.

The Economy is Just Fine

Operational Level

The operational outlook remains largely unchanged from last week. The focus of Russian offensive activity has shifted back to the Avdiivka area. This rapid change of focus from Kharkiv to southern Donetsk looks more like a disjointed series of actions not governed by an operational concept rather than a master plan to confuse Ukraine. The overall objective still seems to be to occupy all the territory inside the historical administrative boundaries of Luhansk and Donetsk, with each local commander fighting his own war.

Russian airstrikes continue to decrease, and there are more reports of operational losses not related to combat. Over the last week, at least two Russian strike aircraft crashed. As I've previously noted, this is probably due to a shortage of spare parts.

The drought of Russian missile attacks continues. We are now 24 days since the last Russian missile attack, expect another major attack in the next ten days. 

Shahed Blitz Attack

Overnight on July 30-31, Russia launched at least 89 Shahed drones into Ukraine. They were launched from several locations with multiple aim points. All of them were destroyed. As far as I can tell, this is the first mass Shahed attack, and it demonstrates that to be effective, Shaheds must be mixed with cruise and short-range ballistic missiles.

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Field Expedient Artillery

Every week, we see more and more indications that Russian tube artillery is in crisis. Here, guns salvaged from BMP infantry fighting vehicles are mounted on field expedient carriages. How well will these carriages, which don't seem to have any recoil mechanism, hold up under combat conditions? My guess is "not long."

New Weapons

"Gerbera" Multipurpose Drone

This Russian drone was only recently identified. There is no word on how capable it is.

Combat Operations

Headquarters Destroyed

We will see many more of these as Ukraine adds F-16s to its Air Force.

Krasnohorivka, Donetsk Oblast

Bradley vs. BMP

Somewhere In Kharkiv

Mi-8 Shootdown

Ukrainian forces shot down an Mi-8 transport using an FPV drone. 

The Ukrainian drone pilot in the Wednesday shoot-down was very skilled or lucky—or both. They spotted the 12-ton, three-crew Russian helicopter—which performs attack, transport and medical-evacuation missions—while it was still close to the ground. “Caught at the moment of takeoff,” a Russian blogger reported.

Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures

Don't Do This

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I posted above about a clash between Wagner Group hired guns and Tuareg tribesmen in Mali. Since then, other videos have surfaced. 

Once you decide to "play dead," you're stuck with it. Jumping up and throwing rocks is not going to work out well.

Camaraderie

Northern Front

Kharkiv

Hlyboke-Vovchansk

There have been minor positional changes inside Vovchansk, with both sides making gains and losing. The line remains stable.

Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna

Like with Hlyboke-Vovchansk, there have been minor changes on the front line. The Russian OPTEMPO here remains high but at a small scale.

Donbas

Bahkmut-Klishchiivka-Andriivka

The main Russian drive on Niu York continues to grind out small gains but has basically stalled. The Russians continue to chip away around Klishchiivka.

Avdiivka

The situation in this area remains precarious for the Ukrainians. One hates to make judgments on a combat operation without being on the ground, but the problem here seems to be a leadership void that the Ukrainian high command is unwilling to fix. The advance at Seriivka makes the position of Ukrainian troops to the east of Komyshivka and Karlivka that much more precarious. That pocket will be evacuated within a month...unless it collapses spectacularly.

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The saving grace here is that the Russians don't seem to have the logistics capability to turn local gains into a tactical breakthrough. Drones and artillery, of course, continue to make massing forces problematic.

Southern Front

Zaporizhzhia

Robotyne-Verbove- Novoprokopivka

The front line is stable.

Kherson

Krynky

There are no decent maps available of this area, but I think this operation is over. I expect Ukrainian forces to withdraw to the right bank of the Dnieper in the very near future.

Rear Areas

Crimea

Novofedorivak Airbase

This is the second time this airbase has been hit; see Airbase in Russian-Occupied Crimea Hit by Devastating Ukrainian Attack.

S-400 Battery Destroyed

A volley of ATACMS missiles destroyed four S-400 launchers, radar, and command center.

Russia

Olenya Airbase, Murmansk Oblast

At least one Tu-22M3 strategic bomber was hit when Ukrainian drones struck a bomber base on Russia's Kola Peninsula, about 1100 miles from Ukrainian lines.

Ryazan Oil Refinery and Diaghilev Airbase, Ryazan Oblast

Engels Airbase, Saratov Oblast

The strategic bomber base at Engels has been hit for the fourth time. See  The War in Ukraine Heats up as Drones Attack Russian Airbase Only 100 Miles From Moscow and Putin’s War, Week 44. Drones Strike Russian Strategic Bomber Base…Again…, Prigozhin Makes His Move, and Putin's War, Week 45: Putin Declares a Cease Fire, Zelensky Gets Putin's Terms for Peace, and if You're Fighting a War, Leave Your Cell Phone Home.

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Kurksk Oblast

What's Next

The arrival of F-16s will be interesting to watch. There are a lot of ways they can be used. So far, the Ukrainian Air Force has operated close to the front under its own air defense umbrella. As we saw last summer, there was a tendency in the Ukrainian Army to give everyone a little bit of the new equipment, so there wasn't enough of it to make any difference on the battlefield. Will we start seeing the Ukrainians execute a coherent air campaign plan, or will it continue to be used piecemeal?

At some point, the Ukrainian Army has to react to Russian advances in Donetsk. The slow-motion penetration of Ukrainian lines they are executing around Avdiivka could cause the loss of significant ground. While that probably wouldn't have much of an operational impact given Russia's inability to move from a tactical advance to a breakthrough to an operational penetration. It will have an impact on national morale and on Ukraine's credibility with its supporters. If the Ukrainians are doing a rope-a-dope at Avdiivka, they need to realize it is time to stop. One man's salient is another man's pocket. An attack at the base of the Russian penetration would not only remove a threat but also demonstrate that the Ukrainian Army has striking power.

I still think that one of the reasons for the seeming passivity of the Ukrainian Army in Donbas is that a strategic reserve is being assembled. With a potential change of US administrations, Ukraine needs to put some points on the board before the rains hit and activity stops until the winter freeze.

Streiff

Former infantry officer, CGSC grad and Army Operations Center alumnus. Also an amateur historian (Colonial America) and a dabbler in historical fiction.
RedState member since 2004. "He would rather pinch off his own head than admit he's wrong" -- Daily Kos. Follow me on Twitter. 

Read more by Streiff
Tags: RUSSIA UKRAINE PUTIN'S WAR

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