Welcome to coverage of Week 71 of Putin’s War in Ukraine. This week has been very slow politically and operationally. The most significant potential story was a rumored attack on Europe’s largest nuclear reactor, the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant; see BREAKING. Russia and Ukraine Accuse Each Other of Planning an Attack Tonight on Europe’s Largest Nuclear Reactor. That, thankfully, never materialized.
Here are some of my past updates.
Putin’s War, Week 70. The Reckoning for the Wagner Revolt Continues
Putin’s War, Week 69. As CNN Reports the Ukrainians Have Stalled the First Breakthrough Happens
Putin’s War, Week 68. The Offensive Develops, Cracks Emerge, and Never Forget the Enemy Has a Vote
Putin’s War, Week 64. Patriots Score Big and the Scene Is Set for Offensive Action
Putin’s War, Week 60. Leaked Documents, a Russian Troll Exposed, and More Pieces Fall Into Place
Putin’s War, Week 59. Russia Goes ISIS and Waiting for General Mud to Take a Break
Putin’s War, Week 58. All Dressed Up and No Place to Go
Putin’s War, Week 57. Waiting for Godot.
Putin’s War, Week 51. Russia’s Slow-Mo Offensive Gets Underway
Putin’s War, Week 50. The Calm Before the Storm
Putin’s War, Week 49. Waiting for the Russian Offensive
Putin’s War, Week 48. The Logjam Breaks and the Leopards Are About to Roam the Ukrainian Landscape
Putin’s War, Week 47. Gerasimov Shakes Up the Russian Army and the Russian Spring Offensive Looms
Putin’s War, Week 44. Drones Strike Russian Strategic Bomber Base…Again… Prigozhin Makes His Move
Putin’s War, Week 42. Ukraine Gets the Nod to Strike Targets in Russia and Some Tools to Do It With
Politico-Strategic Level
I’m not including any items in this category for the first time since the war started. This is not to say Ukraine has dropped from view but only to say that the things happening now don’t seem to have significance outside the event.
Operational Level
New Weapons
Ukraine to Receive Cluster Weapons
The Department of Defense is expected to announce as early as today that it will transfer tens of thousands of rounds of 155mm Dual Purpose Improved Conventional Munitions (DPICM). DPICM is a “cluster weapon” because its warhead comprises dozens of bomblets rather than a single “unitary” warhead. Even though we have not signed the international convention outlawing them, we have allowed ourselves to be bullied into essentially removing them from service. Instead of demilitarizing them, we are sending them to Ukraine.
More Geriatric Tanks Sighted
I’ve posted on elderly Soviet tanks showing up in the combat zone; see Putin’s War, Week 56. Putin Indicted for War Crimes, Xi Visits Moscow, and Sevastopol Attacked for a Third Time and Putin’s War, Week 69. As CNN Reports the Ukrainians Have Stalled the First Breakthrough Happens.
Now another trainload has been spotted on the way to Ukraine. We’ve seen a T-55 used as a vehicle bomb, but I doubt that is why they are shipping these tanks to Ukraine. I imagine we will start seeing them dug into fixed emplacements in the Russian fortification belt. If it gets to the point where we see T-55s duking it out with Leopards or Challengers, we can say the war is nearly over.
The echelon of Soviet T-55 tanks on the way to Ukraine, allegedly in Russia's Voronezh region
"They're as old as mammoth poop," a guy who recorded this video said. These tanks are almost 70 years old.
Source: https://t.co/br63DYgsJa pic.twitter.com/AWlUnoFlsD— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) July 5, 2023
It has been speculated that the Russians may use these rustbuckets to provide indirect fire support. When I first heard of it, I dismissed it as nonsense. Maybe I was wrong.
Imagine the US lost so many artillery pieces and ammo in a war, that they had to rely on their newest Abrams to shoot indirect fire missions in support of the defense.
1.) This T-90M was spotted 8 KM South of the Robotyne FLOT
2.) This T-90M is next to a pile of expended ammo https://t.co/2dqxeTvbwU
— CJ (@CasualArtyFan) July 5, 2023
More Attacks on Ukrainian Populations Centers
This is just more of the same. In this case, it isn’t that there aren’t military targets in and around Lviv to attack. There are. Lviv is on the major rail trunk that moves supplies from Poland to the front lines in Ukraine. The issue is that Russia isn’t making the slightest effort to strike military targets.
Lviv: updated information after the night attack by Russia
– 5 people killed
– 40 people injured
Photo: Associated Press pic.twitter.com/u6sWrri0dw— UkraineWorld (@ukraine_world) July 6, 2023
Combat Operations
Combat Near Bakhmut
The third assault brigade of Ukraine attacks Russian positions in the Bakhmut direction and takes Russian POWs. One of the Russians hides a grenade under him during the surrender. (Eng subtitles)
Full video – https://t.co/07tpVd15Io pic.twitter.com/nS6gWs0OOc— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 3, 2023
Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (TTP)
The Tyranny of Mathematics
The proliferation of relatively cheap drones has shown that the reliance by the world’s armies on missile-based anti-aircraft defenses is simply not sustainable. Unfortunately, the major defense contractors don’t like gun-based systems for a lot of reasons, none of them particularly good. Hopefully, this war will motivate the US to invest in gun systems that can reliably defend vehicles and installations from suicide drone attacks without bankrupting us.
The problem of air defence in one handy graph.
(Via @MunSecConf https://t.co/1r8GFeDNE2) pic.twitter.com/HZOikwXqSo
— Ulrike Franke (@RikeFranke) July 4, 2023
Open Source Intelligence
There have been a lot of cases of Russian troops posting TikTok videos of themselves online and those videos being used to strike them with artillery. If you want to see how easy it can be, without even using the geolocation in the video’s metadata, take a few minutes to watch this.
OSINT analyst uses the OpenStreetMap Overpass API to pin down his target’s location to within a meter using only clues spotted in the background of her selfie video pic.twitter.com/0OTOqR3FbP
— Joe Morrison (@mouthofmorrison) July 2, 2023
Mine Roller Basics
There is a lot of equipment available to help an assault force breach a minefield. This video is a Leopard tank using a mine roller, a medieval but effective technique to clear a lane through a minefield. During the video, the roller will clear anti-tank and scatterable anti-personnel mines.
The de-mining vehicle is back in action! removing mines from the Zaporizhzhia front pic.twitter.com/Q2Ks2fyOye
— Mr. Parrot ™ 🇺🇦 (@parrot_soldier) July 6, 2023
Northern Front
Over the last couple of days, this story has gotten a lot of play on social media.
RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE? UKR intel reports that RU is amassing a considerable force on the eastern front. This is likely the reason that UKR has been highly conservative in its offensive operations to date. Preparing to meet (and defeat) a possible RU attack would take priority over… pic.twitter.com/9cCDL4f9Nt
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) July 3, 2023
🇷🇺 AMASSING > 180,000 TROOPS
⚡️⚡️Russia 🇷🇺 is amassing more than 180,000 troops near the front: There are 120,000 in the Limano-Kupyansk direction & around 50,000 near Bakhmut.
– Sergey Cherevaty, Spokesman, Eastern Group,🇺🇦 Armed Forces.
‼️Send Ukraine 🇺🇦 weapons NOW!! pic.twitter.com/tC6NgNmYDU
— Jason Jay Smart (@officejjsmart) July 3, 2023
It seems to have originated in official Ukrainian circles. For this to work, over half of all Russian troops in Ukraine would have to be concentrated in a relatively small area. Then they would have to be supplied with fuel, ammunition, and food in an area that is not supportable by existing road or rail networks. To me, none of this looks like anything but an information operation that I’m too dumb to figure out.
Kharkiv
The Ukrainian Army has launched probing attacks or reconnaissance-in-force operations in Kharkiv. Not a lot has come of it, and I think its main purpose is to keep the Russians on their toes.
Donbas
Fighting continues north and south of Bakhmut, with Ukrainian forces regaining possession of critical high ground south of that city. Barring a drastic turn of events, Bakhmut could easily change hands again by early September.
Ammunition Depot Destroyed
Crazy footage from the Ukrainian HIMARS strike on a Russian ammunition depot in Makiivka the other day.
The big explosion around 30 seconds in is really something else pic.twitter.com/KdPAytSnx1
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) July 6, 2023
Southern Front
Zaporizhzhia
Progress continues by Ukrainian forces, but it is slow going as the leading elements encounter extensive minefields.
Ukrainian forces have advanced far enough along the axis from Mala Tokmachka through Robotyne to Tokmak that it’s safe for recovery teams to work. @forbes #ukraine https://t.co/9bmG9eB9ne
— David Axe (@daxe) July 2, 2023
Kherson
Antonovsky Bridgehead Remains
The Antonovsky Bridgehead seems to have the effect of a laser pointer on a cat for the Russian military. The bridgehead is secure but not expanding, making its role of a distraction more likely. Here the bridge comes under fire from an Iskander short-range ballistic missile. Why you’d use this weapon on a target literally on the front lines will perhaps remain a mystery forever.
It is reported that the occupiers struck the Antonivskyi bridge with an "Iskander" ballistic missile. By using the Iskander, the occupiers indirectly confirm the problems on the left bank of the Dnieper and that they are unable to eliminate the armed forces' bridgehead by more… pic.twitter.com/pYEkhHe9nv
— Feher_Junior (@Feher_Junior) June 30, 2023
What’s Next?
A month into the offensive, the Ukrainians have yet to commit their best-trained and equipped troops. They also continue to make steady progress in some areas. Until the main force is revealed and fails to gain ground, I think pronouncements of the offensive failing are overblown.
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