Putin's War, Week 77. The Ruble Nosedives, a Breakthrough Looms, and Crimea Faces Isolation

By streiff | 12:27 PM on August 17, 2023
The opinions expressed by contributors are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of RedState.com.
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 As we head into the eighteenth month of Putin's War in Ukraine, it is time for RedState's weekly update on what's happening. The looming political issue is Russia's economy. Last week the ruble fell to the lowest level since the war started. Putin's economic team deserves kudos for keeping an economy slammed by all kinds of sanctions running, but there are indications that the air is about to come out of the balloon. Several nations, including the United States, announced new military aid packages for Ukraine. 

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On the ground, things still aren't moving as fast as the Inside the Beltway punditocracy wants them to move. Still, the ground view of operations shows Ukraine retaining the initiative, winning the artillery war, and pushing their way through Russia's prepared defenses in two critical areas that directly threaten Russia's so-called "land bridge" to Crimea.

Here are some of my past updates. For all my Ukraine War coverage, click here.

Putin's War, Week 76. Russia Shut out of Peace Conference and Its Black Sea Gambit Backfires

Putin's War, Week 75. Putin Cucked, Moscow Droned Again, and the Industrial War Hits High Gear

Putin's War, Week 74. The Crack in the Russian Wall Appears and Ben & Jerry's Employees Join the Russian Army

Putin's War, Week 73. Putin Eludes Arrest, Black Sea Grain Initiative Dies, and Ukraine's Offense Continues to Grind Away

Putin’s War, Week 72. Ukraine Misses NATO Membership but Still Wins and Ground Combat Gains Velocity

Putin’s War, Week 71. The Fighters Go to Their Corners

Putin’s War, Week 70. The Reckoning for the Wagner Revolt Continues

Putin’s War, Week 69. As CNN Reports the Ukrainians Have Stalled the First Breakthrough Happens

Putin’s War, Week 68. The Offensive Develops, Cracks Emerge, and Never Forget the Enemy Has a Vote

Putin’s War, Week 65. G7 Calls for War Crimes Trials and Reparations, F-16 Pilots Start Training, and Russia Is Invaded

Putin’s War, Week 65. G7 Calls for War Crimes Trials and Reparations, F-16 Pilots Start Training, and Russia Is Invaded

Putin’s War, Week 64. Patriots Score Big and the Scene Is Set for Offensive Action

Putin’s War, Week 63. Chechens Replace Wagner in Bakhmut, Storm Shadow Arrives, and Russia Says ‘Family Guy’ Is a Meany-Pants

Putin’s War, Week 62. Kremlin Droned, Russia Dissed by Friends and Allies, and Ukraine’s Offensive Takes Shape

Putin’s War, Week 61. Xi Calls, Prigozhin Sounds El Degüello, and Surprise Attacks at Sevastopol, Kherson, and (Maybe) St. Petersburg

Putin’s War, Week 60. Leaked Documents, a Russian Troll Exposed, and More Pieces Fall Into Place


Politico-Strategic Level

The Ruble Heads South

There has been a lot of discussion about how well the Russian economy is weathering Western sanctions. Despite denials from Moscow, there are lots of signs that the devaluation of the ruble to 1 cent is the beginning of a slide. The Russian central bank has intervened since the ruble fell below 100 to the dollar and has returned to using foreign currency reserves to prop it up. It is doubtful that can continue.

Even pundits on Russian state television are beginning to wonder aloud about what happens next.


Former Russian Commander Dies "After Long Illness"

Colonel General Gennady Zhidko, former deputy defense minister, commander of the Eastern Military District, and commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, has died suddenly after a long illness. There seems to be a lot of sudden death visiting the Russian high command these days.

Is Russia Targeting Journalists and Aid Workers?

Russia has carried out missile attacks on inarguably civilian targets in Ukraine for over a year. In the last three weeks, there has been a claim that some of these seemingly random missile strikes have a purpose. They are targeting hotels where journalists and aid workers stay. If so, it makes sense, as most plausible information about Russian atrocities comes from those sources.

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Belarus Wants Improved Relations With Poland

While never terribly close, relations between Poland and Belarus have deteriorated significantly since Putin’s War started. Poland has accused Belarus of sending illegal migrants across the border. Belarus has violated Polish airspace. Just a week ago, Belarus overlord Aleksandr Lukashenko remarked how the Wagner fighters exiled to Belarus wanted to take a go at Poland.

In response to the migrant problem and Lukashenko’s bellicosity, Poland moved 10,000 troops to the Belarus frontier. Now, Lukashenko is making puppy noises and asking for a better relationship with Poland.

Lukashenko obviously got out over his skis hosting Wagner Group PMC fighters. As I reported last week, he’s trying to undo the damage by deporting the Wagner fighters and starting a diplomatic offensive. But it may be too little and way too late.

Zelensky Fires Mobilization Officials

For the last couple of weeks, I’ve covered anti-corruption activities by the Zelensky government. One of the themes running through them is that mobilization infrastructure is a prime target for malfeasance. Friday, Zelensky dismissed the heads of all mobilization offices in the nation and ordered them replaced by combat veterans.

1, Great optics internationally.

2. Great politics locally.

3. Replacing the top guy is rarely sufficient to turn failed or failing organizations around. Organizations fail because they have a culture of failure. You only turn them around by motivating and terrifying people into doing their jobs.

4. Usually, replacing the guy at the top results in him being captured or suborned by the failing organization, and then you have the terrible optics of firing a combat veteran.

Russkiy Mir Continues to Succeed

Russkiy Mir, which means “Russian World” in English. It is a political and ideological concept that has been promoted by the Russian government since the early 2000s.

Russkiy Mir is based on the idea that Russia is a multinational state with a common cultural and historical heritage. It argues that all Russians, regardless of where they live, are part of the same nation and that they have a shared responsibility to promote Russian culture and values around the world. The concept has been used to justify Russia’s intervention in other countries, such as Ukraine and Georgia. It has also been used to promote Russian soft power, such as through cultural exchanges and educational programs.

As I’ve posted several times, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has demolished the concept in Ukraine and done more to create a sense of Ukrainian identity and patriotism than a single event in modern Ukrainian history.

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British Aid Workers Executed

Several months ago, I posted on Russia returning the bodies of British aid workers Chris Parry and Andrew Bagshaw (Putin's War, Week 50. The Calm Before the Storm). The Daily Mail reports that forensic evaluation of the bodies indicates they were tortured and executed. Evidence suggests they were killed by Wagner Group fighters. 

The Washington Post carried this story a few days ago.

Based on its performance in Syria, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Ukraine, I don't understand why Wagner Group hasn't been declared an international terrorist organization. 

YouTube Cancels Scott Ritter

Convicted pedophile and Russia apologist Scott Ritter has had his YouTube channel canceled. 

While it is good to see the noxious, imbecilic pedophile pushed one step closer to anonymity, we can never lose sight of the danger of letting mega-media conglomerates decide what is allowed to be heard. The best solution to Ritter was to leave him alone and let him continue to discredit himself.

France Commits to Training More Ukrainian Troops

Over 60,000 Ukrainian troops have received basic training in combat skills in 26 different countries. France had signed on to train 6,000. Their quota completed, they have agreed to take on more.

This kind of commitment and the steady flow of military equipment shows that NATO support for Ukraine is not waning.

Operational Level

Despite reports of the Ukrainian offensive being over, the picture from the ground is quite different. Last week, I wrote about a Russian Telegram post complaining about the "genocide of artillery" because of the effectiveness of Ukrainian counterbattery fires. If the memo from Dmitry Rogozin, mentioned below, is correct, the Russians are encountering a shortage of artillery ammunition. There is no doubt that their gun tubes are at the end of their operational lifespan from the sheer volume of shooting and the absence of replacement tubes.

The Ukrainian Army has stopped a Russian offensive in Kharkiv Oblast without drawing on reinforcements from the operational reserve. The first line of Russian defenses, essentially their screening force, has been broken in two places.

Russia's situation in Occupied Kherson and Crimea is looking more and more like the situation Russian forces on the right bank of the Dnieper River faced last fall before the unilateral Russian retreat. The Kerch Strait Bridge was attacked twice this week and is currently closed. Rail and road bridges that allowed a so-called land bridge to Russia have been cut. 

For the first time, we've seen one of Ukraine's elite operational reserve units in combat.

More importantly, the Russians are clearly running on fumes in terms of reserve forces. In the critical area where Ukraine is making progress, the same Russian units are being used as a fire brigade. They are moving from one location to another with limited time to refit. That is not sustainable. 

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More importantly, Ukraine has not reached a culmination point. It is still exercising initiative and controlling the operational tempo.

New Weapons

Russian Equipment Woes

A memo signed by Dmitry Rogozin was leaked to the "VChK-OGPU" Russian Telegram channel and is making the rounds. Rogozin served as director general of the Russian space agency Roscosmos; he was deputy prime minister in charge of the defense industry and ambassador to NATO. He's recently declared himself head of a volunteer group devoted to weeding out defense corruption called the "Tsar's Wolves." The memo has not been denied by anyone so far.

Demining Equipment from Azerbaijan

Demining gear is not a weapon, but it is critical to Ukraine’s war effort and recovery. Azerbaijan is sending mechanized demining vehicles to help in the effort.

Keep in mind: Azerbaijan has a good relationship with Russia.

Aerostats for Poland

Two updates ago (Putin’s War, Week 75. Putin Cucked, Moscow Droned Again, and the Industrial War Hits High Gear), I posted about two Belarusian helicopters making a sortie into Polish airspace, and Poland being unable to react because they couldn’t detect the intruders. Commenter Laocoon noted:

“… Polish air defense radar did not record the airspace violation because of the flight’s low altitude. …”

This is where Ukraine’s and Poland’s lack of dedicated AEW is gonna bite them in the nether regions.

Lesson-learned. Ukraine and Poland need AEW orbits in the area 24/7/365 to find the helos and kill them. The helos can’t go low enuf to hide from look-down pulse-doppler radar. Polish or Ukranian aircraft armed with reletively cheap older AIM-9 L’s and M’s reaching the end of their shelf-life should be able to swat them down at ranges the Russkies can’t match. The same missiles can be uploaded on Ukranian helos. Ukraine needs to be able to take this card out of the Red AF’s deck. The UK just sold 3 of their excess E-3’s to Chile. Why not send more of them to Ukraine? Or even send NATO E-3’s orbiting in Poland to merely perform a NATO surveillance function to deter Russia.

Poland may not have invested in AEW aircraft, but they seem very aware of their vulnerability to low-flying aircraft…and cruise missiles…and are acting to plug the gap.

Damaged Russian Ships

A week ago, Ukrainian unmanned surface vehicles damaged two Russian ships, the Ropucha-class LST Olenegorsky Gornyak and the tanker SIG. See BREAKING: Russian Navy Ship Heavily Damaged by Ukrainian Drone Strike and Putin’s War, Week 76. Russia Shut out of Peace Conference and Its Black Sea Gambit Backfires.

This new video gives a good look at the damage. The hole in the Olenegorsky Gornyak is about 10 feet by 12 feet. Given the competence and quality of Russian shipyard work, this ship may never be operational.

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Combat Operations

As I've mentioned before, the effectiveness of Improved Conventional Munitions, notably US-made Dual Purpose Improved Conventional Munitions, has led to a hue-and-cry by the left to ban them. Our Pentagon, being staffed by the gutless political types that are attracted to power, has done so. See US Releases Cluster Munitions to Ukraine in Stopgap Effort to Aid Ukraine's Offensive and Putin's War, Week 31. Mobilization, Annexation, and Russian Forces Routed From New 'Russian' City for more details. The replacement, at least for the M142 HIMARS and the M270 MLRS, is the M30A1 missile that delivers 180,000 pre-formed tungsten fragments.

Here is another M30A1 strike, this time against a Russian training camp in Occupied Kherson.

This is a Russian equivalent of a US Mine Clearing Line Charge (MICLIC) vehicle hit by a munition dropped from a Ukrainian drone.

See the Week 58 update for video of a MICLIC in action; Putin's War, Week 58. All Dressed up and No Place to Go.

The Ka-52 "Alligator" helicopter gunship has been vital in stopping Ukrainian advances, particularly in the Southern Front area. This is a romanticized portrayal from a pro-Russian account.

The Ukrainians have adapted by moving better air defense systems closer to the front. Yesterday, a Ukrainian unit firing what appears to be a Swedish RBS-70 MANPADS downed a Ka-52 near Robotyne.

The missile launches from the left at 0:00; it impacts at 0:17.

More info on the RBS-70 is in this video.

Russia started the war with an inventory of 133 Ka-62. Forty-two of those have been documented on video as lost in Ukraine. I have no idea how many of the remaining aircraft are in theater. Of those in the theater of operations, some percentage will be down for maintenance, and a number will be "hangar queens," whose only function is to provide spare parts to operational aircraft. Current production can't match the loss rate, and without this critical asset, the job of the Russian command will be a lot harder.

Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (TTP)

Mines have been Russia's super weapon in this war. They have been placed in incredible density, and that has prevented some potential breakthroughs of the Russian defense from happening. Since most of the mines are laid on top of the ground, the Ukrainian Army is using new techniques to locate and clear them.

This is not entirely revolutionary. During the First Gulf War, the USAF launched a "tank plinking" program to attrit the Iraqi Army. Strike aircraft armed with precision munitions would fly over the target area and use infrared sensors to detect Iraqi tanks that glowed hot as the desert temperature dropped.

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Northern Front

 Kharkiv

Kupiansk

The Russian offensive we've followed over the last couple of weeks in the Svatove area, which seemed focused on the city of Kupiansk, has burned out. There were minor territorial gains, but Ukraine was not forced to commit reserve forces to stop the movement. The offensive failed due to logistics and lack of artillery.

Putin's War, Week 77. The Ruble Nosedives, a Breakthrough Looms, and Crimea Faces Isolation

Donbas

Bakhmut

Combat continues around Bakhmut, primarily in the south on the high ground occupied by the town of Klishchiivka. Action there was intense earlier in the week. There was a Russian counterattack that didn't gain traction.

The situation is essentially unchanged.

Putin's War, Week 77. The Ruble Nosedives, a Breakthrough Looms, and Crimea Faces Isolation

Vremivka

The Ukrainians are having solid success pressing south along the Donetsk/Zaporizhzhia border. A small but critical fortified hamlet in the Russian first line, Urozhaine, was officially declared liberated yesterday.

By the time the next update rolls around, I'd expect Staromlynivka, about 5 miles south of Urozhaine, to be under Ukrainian control. 

This sets up the first confrontation between the Ukrainian Army and the first Russian fortification belt.

Putin's War, Week 77. The Ruble Nosedives, a Breakthrough Looms, and Crimea Faces Isolation 

CREDIT: >The War in Ukraine

Southern Front

 Zaporizhzhia

Robotyne

The Ukrainian Army has cleared part of the village of Robotyne but seems more interested in punching a hole through the Russian fortifications to the West.

Putin's War, Week 77. The Ruble Nosedives, a Breakthrough Looms, and Crimea Faces Isolation

Bypassing Robotyne to the west turns the flank of Russian fortifications. And when Robotyne falls, the Russian troops defending fortifications to the north and east of Robotyne must either retreat to the main fortification belt or be sacrificed to slow down the Ukrainian advance.

Putin's War, Week 77. The Ruble Nosedives, a Breakthrough Looms, and Crimea Faces Isolation 

CREDIT:  The War in Ukraine

This area has been an area of maximum effort by the Ukrainian Army, and one of the best-equipped Ukrainian brigades, the 82d Air Assault Brigade, which is incongruously equipped with Challenger 2 tanks and Stryker armored fighting vehicles, is in action in the area.

Kherson

Bridgehead Expansion Continues

The Ukrainian bridgehead continues to expand and receive reinforcements. The Russians don't have reserve forces to attack the bridgehead, and Ukraine has artillery superiority. 

The driving force here for the Russians is purely logistics and lines of communication. As I pointed out last week (Putin's War, Week 76. Russia Shut out of Peace Conference and Its Black Sea Gambit Backfires), the Russian Army in Occupied Kherson and Crimea is supplied via a single railroad line over the Kerch Strait Bridge and a low volume of shipping from Russia to ports in Crimea. Russia can try to attack to reduce the bridgehead and expend men, fuel, ammunition, and equipment that cannot be replaced, or horde what it has and rely on purely defensive action. That's not a good place to be in, but that's why they say, "Amateurs talk tactics; professionals talk logistics."

Rear Areas

 

Crimea

Kerch Bridge Attacked

Saturday, the Kerch Bridge was attacked by S-200 surface-to-air missiles employed as short-ranged ballistic missiles. The damage was uncertain and Russian authorities reported, without any video evidence, that traffic was back to normal. The white smoke is from Russian defensive smoke generators. The black smoke is from explosions.

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That attack on Saturday was followed up by another attack on Wednesday by unmanned surface vehicles.

The bridge is currently closed to rail and road traffic, and ships are not allowed to pass under the bridge.

In my previous Ukraine update (Putin’s War, Week 76. Russia Shut out of Peace Conference and Its Black Sea Gambit Backfires), I looked at the interdiction campaign underway to isolate Crimea and Occupied Kherson. The Kerch Strait Bridge is the only ground link available to supply Crimea. When that’s gone, all supplies must come by ship through ports not designed to handle that kind of traffic. And those supplies can’t reach all of Occupied Kherson because of other dropped road and rail bridges. 

Russia

Moscow Closing Some Airports?

What’s Next?

The next couple of weeks will be critical. Expect an expansion of the limited breakthrough at Urozhaine and Robotyne. The action around Robotyne will also give us a chance to gauge the proficiency of Ukraine's best units. The situation in Occupied Kherson and Crimea bears close watching. It wouldn't be a shock to see the Ukrainians attempt something audacious at their bridgehead while Russian forces are unable to react.

Streiff

Former infantry officer, CGSC grad and Army Operations Center alumnus. Also an amateur historian (Colonial America) and a dabbler in historical fiction.
RedState member since 2004. "He would rather pinch off his own head than admit he's wrong" -- Daily Kos. Follow me on Twitter. 

Read more by Streiff
Tags: RUSSIA UKRAINE PUTIN'S WAR

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