Someone has leaked the War-and-Peace PowerPoint presentation the Bush campaign has used to try to tamp down panic among their donors. In it they list the reasons why Bush will win:
What is missing is #6 which is Someone Has To Vote For Him.
We can argue about the whole laundry list here. Press obsession has an impact on voters who care enough to get out of bed and vote in a primary. Fundamentals do matter but whether the Bush campaign has positive fundamentals and whether those they do have can overcome the sucking chest wound of a burned out candidate remains to be seen. Lack of cash matters is a more accurate statement. When Scott Walker bailed he had over $25 million in his super PAC. In fact, the Bush campaign looks a lot like the Walker campaign. Discipline matters but somnolence is not the same as discipline.
But note number two. “Voters have A.D.D.” It is really astonishing that a candidate would put that in a slide for a couple of reasons. First, it shows you hold the electorate in contempt. That is not good. Second, it really isn’t true. This year the polls have been remarkably stable in the rank ordering of candidates and when they have moved they’ve moved in the same direction, and indeed, they have moved in a logical direction. The size of the primary debate audiences shows that there is a lot of interest in the GOP candidates. But while the polls are moving incrementally, what is happening is that the perception of the candidates are being locked in. The perception of Bush is not one of inevitability. It is one of an out of touch politician flailing about without any compelling reason for wanting to be president other than it is his patrimony. And they won’t forget that.