Historically, the midterms tend to run against the party in power.
So that gives the likely edge to the Democrats.
We also have Operation Epic Fury still going on, so markets and opinion may be a bit unsettled until that resolves.
But even with that, the Harvard-Harris poll showed that the generic ballot numbers were very close, only a two-point difference among registered voters favoring Democrats, 51 to 49.
READ MORE: Dems Aren't Going to Like What This Poll Has to Say About Fighting Iran - or the Midterms
CNN senior data analyst Harry Enten explained that the American people thought the Democrats were "atrociously awful."
Congressional Dems' numbers with Dems are atrociously awful. (Even worse among all voters.)
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) April 2, 2026
Most Dems (55%) think their party has the wrong priorities!
Unlike 2006 or 2018, Dem leaders have a negative net approval with Dems!
Schumer is on thin ice to hold his job next year. pic.twitter.com/ZByeIidfNL
Did Congressional Democrats have the right priorities? 74 percent said no, 25 thought they did.
What was killer was that even Democrats didn't like Democrats. The numbers on that question about the priorities had only 45 percent of Democrats or independents who leaned Democrats thinking they did, a majority of 55 percent, thinking they did not.
Enten thought that screamed primary challenges all over the map, "They don't like their own party either...my goodness gracious!"
Enten looked back at what the Democrats' approval of their congressional leaders was in prior years when the GOP held the White House. The comparison was stark. It used to be positive. In 2006, +28. In 2018, +19. But now, it's -4. "Even Democrats don't like their own leaders," he said.
Enten believed this was a big reason the generic congressional ballot was so close.
He thought that the leadership of Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) looked like it might be on "thin ice." Enten pointed out how the prediction markets' numbers on Schumer becoming leader again had dropped, and were now only hovering at about 50 percent, with some in the Senate saying they didn't want Schumer again. It isn't, however, up to the prediction markets but whether he has enough senators abandon him. That remains to be seen.
There's a lot of disgust and dissatisfaction with the Democrats. The American people haven't forgotten the mess Joe Biden left, and even now, they see Democrats advocating craziness like open borders and being insane when it comes to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). They didn't care who they hurt with their shutdown over Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding. Even the Democratic voters don't think their representatives are delivering what they want. Bottom line? They don't know how to deliver the goods to make things better for Americans. All they ever do is attack President Donald Trump.
The immediate reaction from the left to Enten's post was to demand that they needed to be even more progressive and leftist, to satisfy their leftist base. That would likely cost them more because I think most Americans would then reject the more radical candidates.
If Trump ends Operation Epic Fury successfully, with Iran checked and gas prices dropping again, and the other economic numbers continue to improve, the GOP may pull off a big surprise.
Editor’s Note: The Democrat Party has never been less popular as voters reject its globalist agenda.
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