You have to think that Kamala Harris' campaign folks are tearing their hair out at this point, trying to figure out how their efforts have imploded so badly. She's probably letting them have it too, given the reports about how she treats her staff. Of course, the problem is that they can't switch out the candidate again at this point, and the more she talks the worse it gets. 

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump is making genius moves like his McDonald's appearance that went viral over the weekend and just captivated people. He seems to be hitting his stride at the right time. 

Harris has a problem. She's behind in the RealClearPolitics polling in every one of the battleground states. She's behind in the Polymarket forecast. Meanwhile the popular vote has even been getting closer, so Harris is only up by one point in the RCP average. She's also behind in Nate Silver's forecast. 

#NEW Nate Silver 2024 election forecast update

🔴 Trump: 53.1%
🔵 Harris: 46.6%

“There are now three recent high-quality national polls that show Donald Trump leading — a difficult circumstance for Harris.” pic.twitter.com/bWaPnUZeHL

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 20, 2024

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As our sister site Townhall reported, Silver laid out a "laundry list" of 24 factors that favored Trump. I break down his points here in short form, with some of my own thoughts in italics. You can see his points at the link. 

1. He noted that while Harris is a favorite to win the popular vote, the Electoral College bias favors Republicans by about two percentage points. 

2. Inflation rose to 9.1 percent under Biden/Harris. Even though it's come down some, prices are still "much higher than when Joe Biden took office," and Democrats can be blamed for the increases in spending. I'll add to that Harris herself cast the tie-breaking vote for some of that spending. 

3. "Voter perceptions about the economy lag substantially behind objective data, and growth in take-home income has been sluggish for many years for the working class amid rising corporate profits."

4. "Incumbent parties worldwide are doing very poorly." 

5.  "Populism is often a highly effective strategy, and many Trump voters are indeed 'deplorable' in the Hillary Clinton sense of the term."

6. The "rise in illegal immigration" under Biden and Harris, as well as the global backlash to it all. 

7. Harris was far to the left in 2019 and had "unpopular positions," and she can't really explain now why her positions have changed. 

8. "Cultural vibes are shifting to the right, and the left continues to pay the price for the excesses of 2020 on COVID, crime, 'wokeness,' and other issues." 

9. Voters remember the "relatively strong economic performance" during the first three years under Trump. He thinks people are associating the problems of 2020 with Democrats. No, I think they're just factoring in COVID and realizing that inflation exploded after Biden and Harris came in. 

10.  "Democrats’ dominance among Black voters and other racial and ethnic minority groups is slipping." You can say that again, as we've reported, Trump seems to be gaining across many groups, including in the black and Hispanic demographics.

11. The growing gender gap with men. 

12.  Biden running at his advanced age "neuters" age arguments about Trump. 

13. Harris got a late start and inherited staff from a "poorly-run Biden campaign."

14. She's trying to become the first woman president, and the last time with Hillary Clinton, undecideds broke against Clinton.

15. "Trust in media continues to fall," so it's hard for "legitimate Trump critiques to penetrate to the mass public." That might be because the public has seen the media lie and twist the truth so often, I would think. 

16. He claims Trump has the "traits of a classic con man" and that "Trump is skilled at convincing voters that he’s on their side even if his election would not be in their best interest." Or people did better when he was in office because he had better policies. 

17. "Democrats’ college-educated consultant class has poor instincts for how to appeal to the mass public" while Trump has done more to reach out to a variety of groups. 

 18. He said that while the Democrats' argument that "Trump is a critical threat to democracy is valid and important, given January 6 and Trump’s broad disrespect for the rule of law," it's a "tough sell" because it isn't "intuitive to the voters that democracy is threatened." People don't buy it, and it's also hard to sell because it's the Democrats doing things like attacking SCOTUS and the Electoral College. Not to mention shoving Biden out of the election despite him winning the primary vote for the position.

"Democrats may have staked too many chips on this line of attack." You can say that again.

19. "The world has become more unstable under Biden’s tenure." 

20. The Israel-Hamas war has caused a split in the Democratic base. 

21.  "There are more left-leaning third-party candidates than right-leaning ones, and the former leading third-party candidate (RFK Jr.) endorsed Trump and undermined Harris’s post-convention momentum."

22. Elon Musk becoming a Trump supporter. Silver claims that X has "shifted far to the right." Elon and Silicon Valley created a "permission structure for other wealthy elites to advocate for Trump explicitly and provided a new base of money and cultural influence."

23. The assassination attempts against Trump. Silver believes that the first attempt "closely correlated with an increase in favorability ratings for Trump," and polling shows he's "more popular and sympathetic than in 2016 or 2020."

 24. "Harris has been running on vibes and has failed to articulate a clear vision for the country. It might have been a good strategy if the 'fundamentals' favored her, but they don’t."

While you can see that he's not a fan of Trump and has thoughts which I disagree with, I think that makes the fact that he's willing to lay out the problems with Harris' campaign more compelling. We've reported on many of these issues, but he does lay them out very well. 

This all spells good news for Trump, and he may have just added more to it with a solid weekend of campaigning.