New Forecast Has California Slated to Lose 5 More Congressional Seats by 2030

Downtown Los Angeles, September 2022. CREDIT: Jennifer Van Laar/Townhall Media

According to new data compiled by The American Redistricting Project, California is forecasted to lose five additional seats in Congress by the 2030 reapportionment cycle, or census. Their forecasting model uses data provided by the United States Census Bureau, which has shown a steady decline in the population of California since 2020, the date of the last census. In fact, since the 2020 census, California has seen a net loss of 508,903 residents. This again begs the question, if California is the place to be, according to Governor Gavin Newsom, why is the state in such a state of rapid decline? 


It is no secret that California has seen massive changes over the past five to seven years. Additional taxes, rising gas prices, cost of living increases, property values exploding, and more have caused hundreds of thousands of California residents to flee the state. California is no longer the Golden State of old, rather it's looking more like fools' gold. 

Californians are being taxed to death; its residents pay the highest sales tax, the highest state income tax, and are the 4th highest taxed overall in the nation. Which means we have less money to spend on daily needs. The burden is further compounded by the high cost of living, with California taking the 4th highest cost of living position in the nation. Housing costs are particularly high, with the average home costing over $800,000. This has made it difficult for many families to afford to live in California and has led to residents leaving in search of more affordable living.

Californians also pay the most for basic necessities such as housing, food, and healthcare, compared to the rest of the nation. The high tax rates have made it more difficult for people to make ends meet and are driving businesses out of the state. Their tax policies are hurting Californians and are a major reason for California's failed state status.

With California in such a sad state of decline, one would think that the state government would be instituting radical policy changes to fight that decline. However, it seems to be the exact opposite, with Newsom and his administration doubling down on failing policies and high taxes. A perfect example of this would be California's "high-speed rail" project that was approved by voters in 2008. 


Californians passed a bond initiative in 2008 to build a bullet train. The track was to run from Los Angeles to San Francisco at a projected cost of $33 billion. It was anticipated to complete in 2020. How fast is California’s bullet train? It travels at zero miles per hour. It hasn’t been built. The projected cost went from $33 billion to $113 billion, and only the most Pollyannaish politicians claim that California will have a bullet train anytime soon if ever.

The "high-speed rail" project is just another example in a long line of examples of problems that California has. But like the train, Newsom just doubles down on failure, and it is costing him and his state representation in the House of Representatives. Now Newsom and his supporters — along with the liberal voters who just cannot seem to see reality for what it is — they don't see this as a problem, just a minor bump in the road. If the state lost over 500,000 residents in just three years, that would make an average annual loss in population of approximately 166,666 people. If we take that number and track it to 2030, the loss would potentially be over 1.6 million residents. 

That's not a laughing matter, nor is something you can explain away as not important. With the loss in population also comes a loss of the national influence that Newsom and his allies love to brag about. Repeatedly, they brag about how their laws and or policy agendas heavily influence the rest of the country or nod to the saying, "As California goes, so goes the Nation." If we lose that many people, that influence goes right out the window. Fewer people to represent us in Congress means less money directed to the state, and fewer votes to cast in the chamber obviously lessens the ability to get their liberal agendas across the finish line. We will also start to lose more electoral votes in the presidential elections; we have already lost one, and we could lose a lot more in 2030. 


The fact is that California is on a losing path. We spend more than we have, tax more than taxpayers have, and people can't even afford to buy a house. A whopping 16 percent of Californians can afford to buy a new median-priced house in the state. 

Astonishingly, though, that is not where the nightmare ends. The report goes on to say that in order to purchase a median-priced, single-family home in California, residents must have a minimal annual income of over $200,000 to afford it. 

For an existing single-family home at California’s median price of $830,620, buyers in the second quarter needed a minimum annual income of $208,000 to qualify for a 30-year mortgage after a 20% down payment. Loans on condos and townhouses, with a median $640,000 price, required a minimum $160,400 income. 

With every passing day, we show the nation that if it follows the path of California, it will crumble faster than a saltine cracker in a closed fist. But Governor Newsom says everything is fine, and we are getting things done and sticking it to the oil companies while everyone else is suffering and struggling to pay the bills and live a somewhat comfortable life. Tone deaf doesn't even begin to describe the insanity that is California and our leftist government. 



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