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Here’s What the Supreme Court’s Abortion Decision Could Mean for the Midterms

AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana

The Supreme Court might uphold Mississippi’s abortion law, and the pro-abortion left is all in a tizzy over it. In fact, some have suggested that if the government does not make it easier for babies to be killed, a revolution might ensue. But if the highest court in the land does allow this law to stand, how might the decision impact the upcoming midterm elections?

The New York Times reported:

The Supreme Court seemed poised on Wednesday to uphold a Mississippi law that bans abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy, in what would be a momentous and polarizing decision to roll back the abortion rights the court has defined over the last half century.

The author echoed arguments made by Supreme Court justices who favor the legality of abortion, noting that “[m]oving that line to 15 weeks would discard decades of precedent,” and that “several of the conservative justices appeared ready to go further and overrule Roe entirely, letting states decide whether and when to ban abortions.”

Justice Brett Kavanaugh indicated he might support upholding the Mississippi law when he asked an attorney representing Mississippi:

“In other words, that the Constitution is neither pro-life nor pro-choice on the question of abortion but leaves the issue for the people of the states or perhaps Congress to resolve in the democratic process?”

Justice Sonia Sotomayor argued that upholding it would constitute an existential threat to the validity of the Supreme Court. “Will this institution survive the stench that this creates in the public perception that the Constitution and its reading are just political acts?” she asked.

With no sense of irony, she also asked how the court would survive if people believe it has become politicized.

At this point, it seems probable that the court will allow Mississippi’s law to remain intact, although a complete repudiation of Roe v. Wade still seems less likely. But even so, if the court rules for the law, it could have tremendous ramifications on the upcoming midterm elections. Indeed, it appears Democrats already recognize that if the law remains, it will give them a line of attack against Republicans during the campaign.

CNN reported:

Democrats now are banking on a backlash fueled in large part by voters who back abortion rights, or are at least passively support a right to choose, but had not considered it a top issue in recent years due to the protections granted by Roe v. Wade.

Jazmin Vargas, spokeswoman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee told the activist media outlet, “[w]e must defend a Democratic Senate majority with a power to confirm or reject Supreme Court Justices.”

She continued:

“At the end of the day, these Supreme Court Justices make these decisions, and so we’re going to make this issue salient by reminding voters of the importance of electing a Democratic Senate.”

CNN also noted that some Democratic incumbents whose seats might be up for grabs are already looking to use abortion to persuade voters to keep them in office. Sen. Maggie Hassan (NH) indicated she would be making abortion a top issue in her campaign. In a statement to CNN, she explained: “My potential opponents support dramatically restricting a woman’s liberty by infringing upon her right to make her own health care decisions.”

Hassan also said she “will not be shy about contrasting my record of protecting reproductive rights with their support for policies that take away women’s liberty.”

However, Republicans seem to believe that the abortion issue will be enough to prevent the Democrats from getting their rear ends handed to them next year. Chris Hartline, a spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, indicated that since the justices have a wide range of options on how to rule in this case, it is too early to determine whether the issue will be featured prominently in the upcoming campaigns. But either way, he seems confident that the left will not be able to use abortion to increase their chances for victory:

“Democrats always try to make elections about abortion and it never really seems to work. And we know with the issues that they have in terms of the political environment right now, they were going to try to find something to juice their base.”

Some members of the pro-abortion crowd have expressed concern that “Democratic voters disillusioned by internal clashes and stalled legislative efforts by the party’s majorities on Capitol Hill could blunt an electoral backlash against Republicans,” according to CNN.

Nelini Stamp, director of partnerships and strategy for the Working Families Party, told CNN:

“Could we see a giant electoral backlash against Republicans? Yes, I think so. But the Democratic Party can’t just hope that voter outrage is going to save them.”

People like Hartline might be correct in their assessment that the Democrats will not use abortion to great effect during the 2022 campaign season. However, this does not mean the GOP should rest on its laurels, as it could be a tremendous mistake to sleep on this issue.

If the Supreme Court upholds Mississippi’s law, there can be no doubt that the Democrats and their close friends and allies in the activist media will weaponize the decision against Republicans. They will fearmonger to their base, claiming that evil Republicans are going to prevent mothers from killing their children. Democrats will claim their opposition is intent on controlling women’s bodies.

The Democrats are in a precarious position because of their failure to pass any meaningful legislation and President Joe Biden’s apparent ineptitude. It is why they are holding onto the Jan. 6 riot at the US Capitol building – it is the only real weapon they have against the right. The abortion issue will provide another cudgel to swing at Republican candidates.

However, if the GOP plays its cards right and focuses on solutions, the abortion weapon will be rendered impotent. At this point, given the Democrats’ performance, it is difficult to imagine that any issue will persuade the public to allow them to have complete control of the federal government.