Political gridlock over Taiwan’s supplementary defense budget continues. This comes amid China’s unprecedented military buildup and increasing aggression in the Western Pacific.
Zero People’s Liberation Army warplanes were detected around Taiwan between February 27 and March 11, with the exception of one day. The lull in aircraft activity coincided with China’s “Two Sessions” — a series of annual meetings for the National People’s Congress, China’s rubber-stamp legislature, and the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) advisory body. Analysts have also tied this downtrend to the Trump-Xi summit (likely to be delayed) and Operation Epic Fury.
However, Chinese military activity around Taiwan tends to be cyclical — periods of low activity followed by bursts of military activity and incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone.
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Beijing has its sights set on Taiwan, viewing it as critical to the “rejuvenation” of the Chinese nation. This was reiterated at the recent “Two Sessions,” with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi saying the following:
The Taiwan question is China’s internal affair. It is at the core of China’s core interests — a red line that must not be crossed or trampled on. Taiwan was recovered by China over 80 years ago, and we will never allow any individual or force to separate it from China again. The one-China principle has overwhelming support in the international community. More and more countries are standing with China — not only reaffirming their commitment to the one-China principle and recognizing Taiwan as part of China, but also taking a clear stand against all activities for “Taiwan independence” and supporting the cause of China’s reunification. This is irrefutable proof that opposing “Taiwan independence” and promoting China’s reunification is the trend of the times, and meets the expectation of the international community.
Resolving the Taiwan question and realizing the complete reunification of our motherland is a historic process that cannot be stopped. Those who support it are on the right side of history; those who defy it shall perish.
Taiwan’s main opposition party, the China-friendly Kuomintang (KMT), recently introduced its own version of the supplementary defense budget, which is being considered alongside the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) — Taiwan President Lai Ching-te’s party — and the Taiwan People’s Party’s (TPP) —the KMT’s coalition partner — versions.
The KMT’s proposed budget totals approximately $11.8 billion, less than the TPP’s proposal and only a fraction of the DPP’s widely favored $40 billion budget. It would fund the purchase of all the weapons systems included in Washington’s December 2025 arms package.
The TPP’s defense budget, on the other hand, would fund five of eight weapons systems and reserves additional funds for future weapons purchases from the U.S. According to Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense, the three other items would be included in the regular annual defense budget.
The KMT’s bill is problematic for multiple reasons. First, like the TPP’s version, it omits funding for Taiwan’s drone program, the T-Dome missile system, and co-development and co-production opportunities. The former is needed in order to transform the Taiwan Strait into an “unmanned hellscape,” while the latter would help alleviate the pressure on the U.S. defense industrial base by allowing advanced, low-cost autonomous arms to be produced domestically in Taiwan.
The KMT’s bill sets 2028 as the U.S. arms deadline. In the DPP’s and TPP’s proposals, it's 2033. Taiwan Defense Minister Wellington Koo criticized the 2028 deadline as “impossible,” and he’s right. While Washington is working to speed up the arms backlog, it’s unlikely that the U.S. would be able to deliver weapons to the island in under three years.
Take the M1A2T Abrams tanks as an example. Taiwan is set to receive the final batch of these tanks by the end of March. Taipei purchased them in 2019 — seven years ago.
In an exclusive interview, Huang Kuo-chang, the TPP’s chairman, stated that his party would be open to passing the DPP’s budget if the U.S. officially approved a second arms deal containing some of the items in the DPP’s supplementary budget plan.
The administration delayed a second arms package ahead of the Trump-Xi summit. It's reportedly worth $14 billion, making it the largest arms sale to the island, and is said to include advanced inceptor missiles.
When the State Department will approve this deal remains unclear. It could be days, weeks, or a couple of months following the summit (whenever that takes place). But rest assured that it will be approved in due time. The administration doesn’t want to be seen as weak on Taiwan. The self-governed island plays a critical role in the deterrence by denial strategy in the Indo-Pacific.
Whether the TPP will keep its word is uncertain. The TPP is attempting to differentiate itself from the KMT with its own budget. But the TPP also benefits politically from aligning itself with the KMT, a much older and well-established party. It’s questionable whether the TPP would risk alienating the KMT, especially ahead of Taiwan’s version of the midterms — the local elections. The KMT and TPP recently announced a joint platform ahead of the elections.
Perhaps the politically safer route for the TPP would be to persuade the KMT to support its bill or for the two parties to put forward a joint proposal.
Meanwhile, the TPP and the KMT are pushing controversial bills through the legislature. These include legislation that would allow individuals to run for political office without relinquishing their Chinese citizenship, create free trade zones on Taiwan’s outlying islands, and legalize absentee voting (with the option of doing so electronically). All of these bills will help make Taiwan more vulnerable to Chinese malfeasance.
Taiwan’s legislature has been going back and forth over defense spending for months now. The U.S. State Department urged Taiwan’s legislature to pass the special defense budget. Your guess is as good as mine as to what happens next. This story is far from over. Stay tuned.
