Is Trump's Presidential Campaign Hurting His Businesses? Here's some Evidence that it is

FILE - In this April 5, 1990 file photo, Donald Trump stands next to a genie lamp as the lights of his Trump Taj Mahal Casino Resort light up the evening sky marking the grand opening of the venture in Atlantic City, N.J. (AP Photo/Mike Derer, File)

 

FILE - In this April 5, 1990 file photo, Donald Trump stands next to a genie lamp as the lights of his Trump Taj Mahal Casino Resort light up the evening sky marking the grand opening of the venture in Atlantic City, N.J.  (AP Photo/Mike Derer, File)

Since Donald Trump announced his candidacy in June 2015, foot traffic to Trump branded hotels, casinos and golf courses has fallen by 17 percent. That’s the big takeaway from the Big Data collected by Foursquare and analyzed by its data scientists:

Before Trump announced his presidential bid, foot traffic to his properties was steady year-over-year — and maybe even saw a small uptick. After he entered the race, his branded properties failed to get their usual summertime traffic gains. In August 2015, the share of people coming to all Trump-branded properties was down 17% from the year before.

These losses stabilized to single digits for a number of months, but as Primary voting season hit full swing in March 2016, share losses grew again. Trump properties did not get their usual springtime bounce of travelers and locals. March share was down 17% once more.

The Trump branded properties hit hardest were Trump SoHo, Trump International Hotel & Tower Chicago and Trump Taj Mahal, which compared to last year, were down 17% to 24% in foot traffic. Trump Taj Mahal had also recently announced it would close after Labor Day due to an employee strike, Foursuare’s data shows the problems at Taj Mahal ran deeper.

Foursquare also looked at how foot traffic at Trump properties might differ between “blue state” and “red state” locations. Trump’s hotels, casinos, and golf courses are mainly located in reliably blue, Democrat- leaning states, and obviously depend on guests and visitors who live in the region. This year traffic to Trump’s blue state properties is off 20 percent:

For the past five months, Trump’s blue state properties — spread between New York, New Jersey, Illinois, and Hawaii — have taken a real dip, with diminishing visits starting in March and a widening gap that continues straight through July, when share fell 20% versus July 2015.

Not surprisingly, Foursquare also found that foot traffic from women in blue states to Trump-branded businesses decreased more than foot traffic from men and is down 29 percent:

In July, visit share among women to Blue State properties was down 29%. This seems to reflect the gender division in the polls among American women.

That’s right, Trump’s war with women is also bad for business.

To analyze foot traffic patterns to the dozens of Trump-branded hotels, casinos and golf courses, Foursquare utilized “foot traffic trails” from more than 50 million users of its Foursquare and Swarm apps and check-in data.