THE ESSEX FILES: Iran’s Threats Reveal the Cost of Years of Mixed Signals

Iranian state TV via AP

Iran’s latest warning to retaliate “with everything we have” if the United States launches new military strikes is not a surprise. It is the predictable result of years of half-measures, muddled deterrence, and a foreign policy that tried to manage Tehran instead of confronting what its regime really is. 

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In a recent op-ed, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi claimed that protests in Iran began peacefully but were hijacked by “foreign and domestic terrorist actors.” He accused the United States of exploiting unrest and blamed President Donald Trump’s rhetoric for escalating violence. 

This is the standard script of the Islamic Republic. When thousands of Iranians take to the streets and risk their lives, the regime does not see citizens demanding accountability. It sees foreign plots. It shuts down the internet, blames outsiders, and insists that the real problem is Washington, not the men giving orders in Tehran. 

Araghchi also issued a threat that Iran’s armed forces would respond with full force to any renewed American attack, warning of a wider regional conflict. That message is aimed less at the Pentagon and more at Western politicians and commentators who instinctively fear escalation more than they fear a terror-sponsoring regime consolidating power. 

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For years, the United States and its allies have tried to walk a narrow line with Iran, punishing it just enough to signal disapproval but not enough to break its sense of impunity. Sanctions are eased, then tightened. Red lines are declared, then blurred. Limited strikes are followed by calls for “restraint.” The result is a leadership in Tehran that believes it can crush protesters at home, arm proxies abroad, and still lecture the West about “respect.” 

The statistics coming out of Iran’s latest unrest are staggering. A human rights group that tracks abuses in the country reports thousands of protesters killed, including children, and tens of thousands arrested across hundreds of demonstrations. Those are not the marks of a government that is misunderstood. They are the marks of a government that fears its own people. 

Iranians do not need more statements about “both sides” showing restraint. They need clarity about who is doing the killing and who is being killed. When the United Nations convenes a special session on Iran’s human rights crisis, the question should not be whether the regime has gone too far this time. The question should be why the world keeps acting surprised when it does exactly what its record says it will do. 

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A serious conservative foreign policy begins with moral and strategic clarity. Iran’s rulers are responsible for the blood in the streets. They respond to strength, not flattery. They read hesitation as an invitation, not as diplomacy.  

That does not mean rushing into war. It does mean rebuilding credible deterrence, keeping sanctions pressure real and targeted, supporting Iranians who are risking everything for basic freedoms, and refusing to reward Tehran with concessions every time it rattles its saber. 

The choice is not between endless conflict and endless indulgence. It is between a policy that treats Iran’s regime as a normal government and one that recognizes it as what its own actions reveal. The more Washington blurs that line, the more confident Tehran becomes in issuing threats about using “everything we have” against a country that still has far more power and far more moral authority than it sometimes remembers to use. 

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