Monday brought about a fresh round of presidential election polling and model updates, and the numbers are absolutely brutal for Joe Biden. 

A new batch of swing state surveys was released, showing Trump dominating across the board, including in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Georgia. 

WISCONSIN
Trump 44% (+5)
Biden 39%
Kennedy 4%
Stein 1%
West 1%
.
PENNSYLVANIA
Trump 45% (+3)
Biden 42%
Kennedy 3%
Stein 1%
West 1%
.
MICHIGAN
Trump 44% (+2)
Biden 42%
Kennedy 4%
Stein 1%
West 1%
.
NEVADA
Trump 47% (+5)
Biden 42%
Kennedy 3%
Stein 1%
West 0%
.
ARIZONA
Trump 46%…

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) July 15, 2024

As things stand, Trump is in position to win an electoral landslide. Pennsylvania, once reasonably believed to be a lost cause, has come full circle, and now this is just the latest of many polls showing the former president up big there. Nevada remains a very interesting contest as well, with it being a reliably blue state for years. Things have obviously changed there, and Trump has consistently led there for many months. 

Perhaps the biggest news of the day polling-wise was a survey that Trump is losing in, though. According to the newest Times/Sienna poll, Trump is only down three points in Virginia, a state he lost by 10 points in 2020. 

New NYT/Siena poll of PA and VA.

Trump up 3 in PA
Biden up 3 in VA

Kamala polls better than Biden in both states.
Trump up 1 in PA
Harris up 5 in VAhttps://t.co/mHVd6fqRtI pic.twitter.com/mXpjnLTV11

— Alex Thompson (@AlexThomp) July 15, 2024

To put it succinctly, if Trump is only down three points in a state like Virginia, he's going to cruise to re-election. That is the kind of margin that spells doom for Democrats across the allotment of the purple states. If Trump were to pick Glenn Youngkin as his running mate (that answer will come within hours of this article being published), it would lock the election up, in my opinion. 

Nate Silver also updated his model just before the Republican National Convention. Biden is languishing at nearly his lowest probability of winning yet. 

Our final pre-convention numbers show Biden remaining near his lows and Trump near his highs in all categories. pic.twitter.com/Q23nBFnGlt

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 15, 2024

Lastly, it should be noted that all the polls mentioned above were conducted before the assassination attempt against Donald Trump, which occurred at a rally on Saturday. If he gets any kind of bump out of that heinous attack, this thing could be blown wide open. 

There simply is no good news for Democrats. Perhaps things will change, but right now, Republicans are cruising, and this isn't like 2022 where that was based on a mix of polls, some good, some bad. Essentially every piece of data says Democrats are getting clobbered.