Much of the analysis surrounding Joe Biden’s downfall has centered on national approval ratings. RedState has covered that issue extensively, noting that the president appears to have no support floor. That makes him much more like George W. Bush and less like Donald Trump.

But underneath the national discussion lies the environment that truly matters as we head into 2022, and it’s not looking good for Biden and his cohorts.

'Buyer's remorse': Democrats face electoral headwinds in swing states as Biden's job approval sinkshttps://t.co/Q1xTBWoT0j

— Mike Berg (@MikeKBerg) September 22, 2021

Biden faces dismal job approval ratings in several battleground states, including Michigan, Virginia, and Iowa, where the president garnered the lowest score since George W. Bush in 2008 in a survey this week.

Fewer than one-third of Iowans approve of Biden’s job as president at 31%, compared to 62% who disapprove, according to a Sept. 12-15 poll for the Des Moines Register/Mediacom by Selzer & Co. Seven percent said they were unsure.

The Des Moines Register poll is a “gold standard” poll. It’s the one everyone watches during the presidential primaries because it’s always so accurate, and they have Biden down at 31%. Things aren’t any better in Michigan, a state that has a Democrat governor and two Democrat senators. A recent poll has the president at 39% approval there, with those who “feel strongly” about their disapproval doubling those who strongly approve.

Then there’s Virginia, where Glenn Youngkin is making an unexpected comeback in the upcoming race for the governorship against Terry McAullife. As the Examiner points out, Biden won that state by 19 points in 2020. Now, Youngkin, who was left for dead a month ago, has closed to within six points and leads with independents.

That race will be a major barometer for 2022. If Youngkin loses by less than 10 points, that’s a major shift away from Democrats compared to just a year ago. And if the Republican somehow pulls off the upset, it’ll be a ground-shaking victory that sets the stage for an absolute Democrat wipeout next year.

Regardless, all of these state-level data points show an upcoming buzzsaw for leftist dreams. While Biden isn’t personally up for re-election in 2022, if the GOP retakes just the House, it effectively ends his presidency. Further, if they retake the Senate, it ends his ability to add radicals to the judiciary. That would complete the collapse of power.

If I’m making predictions, I think Democrats have passed the point of no return. I can not fathom what event could happen that would turn around the current trajectory. Republicans just have to shut up and let the left continue to implode and they will win the House by default next year. If they show some spine in opposing the Biden agenda, including during this upcoming shutdown and reconciliation fight, I think the Senate will be in play as well. GOP voters are out there. They are just looking for some motivation to really blow things out of the water.

The Biden presidency is in a total freefall, and all of it is completely self-inflicted. History says the first mid-term is almost always a political graveyard for the party in power. Couple that with redistricting and these terrible state-level numbers and things are looking bleak for the Democrats. But I believe the final nail in the coffin is what’s happening at the border. Normal Americans are seeing scenes they’ve never seen before while the White House spends its time lying about CBP agents and whips. The disconnect is too stark, and it will matter.