A new CBS poll shows that Donald Trump’s guilty verdict on 34 counts of business fraud in Manhattan DA’s Alvin Bragg’s prosecution is not at the forefront of people's minds—they’re more concerned about the economy, inflation, and the border—and as the race stands now, the two contenders are in a virtual dead heat.
Nevertheless, the verdict did energize a small percentage of Trump haters:
But what we do see is a few more Joe Biden voters activated out of opposition to Trump. His vote has become increasingly centered around anti-Trump sentiment, more so than affinity for Mr. Biden himself. Today, most of Mr. Biden's voters say their main rationale is opposing Trump, and that's up from March.
A new @CBSNewsPoll finds Biden and Trump are effectively tied now — among likely voters across all 50 states it's Trump +1, and among likely voters across the Battleground states it's Biden +1. Trump's conviction has some — but limited — impact, as more Joe Biden voters are… pic.twitter.com/dyZpLGApKV
— Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation) June 9, 2024
Trump's conviction has some — but limited — impact, as more Joe Biden voters are activated out of opposition to Trump.
The poll shows that Trump has the edge nationally, 50-49 percent, but Biden is slightly ahead in the battleground states by the exact same margin, 50-49. Seventeen percent say the verdict is a “minor factor,” 28 percent say it’s a “major factor,” but 55 percent say it’s simply “not a factor.” For those already planning to vote for Trump, however, a whopping 71 percent reveal it’s just that important and 14 percent say their reason to vote for him will be to "show support" after his conviction.
NEW
— Kabir K. / kabirkhanna.bsky.social (@kabir_here) June 9, 2024
Trump verdict pales in comparison to all other issues tested as factors for voters — economy and border continue to favor him
But more Biden voters activated out of opposition to Trump since spring
Close race nationally & in battlegrounds now
More: https://t.co/SByBWPMVZO pic.twitter.com/Pv0Ep9tPxo
Meanwhile, nobody seems to really like Biden:
Most of Mr. Biden's voters now say their main rationale is to oppose Trump, not because they like Mr. Biden — an increase in this rationale since March…
Moreover, we see this dynamic again in how people frame their vote decision, along the lines of whether this election is a referendum or a choice.
When people say this election is just about their view on Trump, most vote for Mr. Biden.
However, when people instead see this race as a judgment just on Mr. Biden, they vote for Trump.
Trump outpaces Biden on a range of qualities.
— CBS News Poll (@CBSNewsPoll) June 9, 2024
Biden does better on likability but many who don’t like the way Trump handles himself personally are voting for him anyway. pic.twitter.com/Ye5nCRRnDh
There are more indications that enthusiasm for Biden is lacking:
Trump outpaces Mr. Biden on a range of qualities like being seen as effective, tough, energetic and — more narrowly — competent. Also, more think Trump has a vision of where he wants to lead the country.
Mr. Biden does better on personal likability and being viewed as compassionate. But that likability gap does not match vote preferences, because a lot of people who dislike Trump personally are voting for Trump anyway.
All in all, if you’re in the Trump camp, this poll has to be considered good news. In 2016, almost all polls showed him headed for defeat, yet he won anyway, so if he’s even close in national surveys, it means he’s got a good shot at prevailing again. Meanwhile, every time Biden makes one of his signature bumbling appearances, it just reminds the electorate of just how compromised he is; this is a trend that’s only likely to get worse as we head toward November.
He'd do better campaigning from his basement:
Biden's Bewilderment Hits Fever Pitch in Paris, With a Gross Moment Thrown In
Hang on to your hats—it’s going to be a bumpy ride.
Join the conversation as a VIP Member