Democrat Rep. Jasmine Crockett (TX-30) isn’t just leading in the Texas Democrat U.S. Senate primary anymore. She’s pulling away, and she’s doing it as early voting is already underway.
The latest statewide survey, conducted Feb. 2 through Feb. 16 among likely Democrat primary voters, shows the Dallas congresswoman expanding her edge over state Rep. James Talarico. Early voting began Feb. 17 and runs through Feb. 27 ahead of the March primary, which means this shift is happening while ballots are being cast.
“Crockett leads Talarico 56 percent to 44 percent among likely Democratic primary voters statewide.”
Twelve points.
That is not a wobble. That is movement.
Late-January polling had her up by 8 points after a stretch where the race looked tighter. The trajectory since then has been in one direction.
The broader polling average tells the same story. This is not a one-survey spike. It is a widening margin.
Inside Democrat circles, the tone is already shifting. One longtime party strategist posted this week that DSCC sources believe Crockett is “likely winning,” adding that an attack line against her opponent “worked.” Whether that is spin or confidence, it is not the language of a campaign expecting the race to tighten.
As I've said since being in DC a few weeks ago, DSCC sources tell me they're resigned to Crockett likely winning. The Colin Allard attack worked.
— dan turrentine (@danturrentine) February 25, 2026
Jasmine Crockett leads James Talarico by double digits in Senate Democratic primary, poll finds https://t.co/cdTgNTNoU9
On the Republican side, it looks very different. The GOP primary between Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Sen. John Cornyn remains tight, with single-digit spreads and competitive movement depending on the poll. That race is still unsettled, with neither candidate breaking away in a way that signals clear consolidation among Republican voters or a settled direction inside the party.
The Democrat primary is increasingly not.
Primaries usually tighten as voting begins. They do not typically widen. Moving from a single-digit edge to a 12-point margin while ballots are being cast suggests Democrat voters are making a decision, not hesitating.
Crockett has not built her profile by playing it safe. Over the past year, she has leaned into sharp exchanges, viral moments, and snappy soundbites that regularly spill beyond Texas politics. In recent immigration flashpoints, Democrat lawmakers used similar framing, condemning federal enforcement actions before all the details were clear, only for later information to destroy the narrative. That posture has not hurt her in this primary. If anything, it appears to be part of what is consolidating support around her.
Read More: Jasmine Crockett's Policy Page Finally Drops—and It's a Hilarious Trainwreck
New: Texas Rep. Jasmine Crockett Officially Launches U.S. Senate Bid
While Republicans are still competing for position, Democrats appear increasingly comfortable with theirs.
Polls are snapshots. They always are.
But widening margins during early voting are not meaningless noise. They suggest consolidation. And consolidation this early is not accidental.
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