California Could Do the Funniest Thing: GOP Leading 2026 Governor Polls

California could do something very funny this year.

The state’s top-two jungle primary system was designed to stabilize politics in a deep-blue state. In California’s primary, all candidates run on the same ballot and only the top two vote-getters advance to November, regardless of party.

California has not elected a Republican to statewide office since 2006. Democrats hold a massive registration advantage and dominate statewide races in November. That makes what is happening in the June polling far more unusual than it might appear at first glance.

That structure rewards consolidation. Right now, Democrats are not consolidating.

In November, a Public Policy Institute of California survey showed Katie Porter leading by seven points. That poll is one of the select pollsters highlighted on the New York Times polling tracker page for the race.

Public Policy Polling also had Porter on top earlier in the cycle, in a survey commissioned by Democrats. But since those early snapshots, polling on the tracker has consistently shown Democrats failing to consolidate the multi-candidate field, while Republicans continue to land in the top two.

Across the surveys currently listed on the polling landing page for the California governor race, Republicans Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton consistently rank first or second. Even pollsters that major outlets consider reliable show the same pattern.

Start with the late-January RBI Strategies survey conducted Jan. 25 to 29 for AFSCME Local 101. AFSCME is a major public-sector union aligned with Democrats. The topline numbers:

Chad Bianco: 16%
Steve Hilton: 15%
Eric Swalwell: 14%
Katie Porter: 13%

That is a Democratic-aligned labor union poll showing two Republicans in the top two, but which also shows 33% undecided.

Then there is the February EMC Research survey conducted Jan. 29 to Feb. 4 among 1,400 likely June 2026 primary voters. Eric Swalwell’s campaign commissioned that survey.

Even in his own campaign-sponsored poll, Swalwell was not leading statewide.

Chad Bianco (R): 21%
Eric Swalwell (D): 18%
Steve Hilton (R): 17%
Katie Porter (D): 12%

That is a Democrat-sponsored poll showing a Republican in first place and another Republican just one point behind Swalwell.

The EMC memo described Swalwell as “competitive for a top-two spot.” Competitive is not leading.

EMC also reported that roughly 80 percent of likely June voters can form an opinion about Swalwell. In other words, his numbers are not simply a visibility problem. Voters know who he is. And even in a campaign-sponsored survey, he is not leading the field.

Katie Porter's Meltdown Clearly Shows She Should Not Be in Public Office and Will Never Be CA Governor

Among registered Democrats in that same EMC survey, Swalwell led with 32 percent to Porter’s 20 percent. That confirms the structural problem. Democrats are dividing their vote among multiple candidates. Republicans are clustering between two.

The December CivicLens Research survey, conducted Dec. 14 to 16, showed:

LATEST CivicLens POLL 🚨

In the California governor primary, two Republicans currently hold the top two spots, with Swalwell leading the pack of Democratic candidates behind.

🥇 17.8% @SteveHiltonx
🥈 13.9% @ChadBianco
🥉 12.2% @ericswalwell pic.twitter.com/SeQ9F84TPb
— CivicLens Research (@CivicLensData) December 18, 2025

CivicLens also reported more than 30 percent undecided. In a fragmented field, consolidation rather than persuasion may determine who survives June.

Here is the key point. Two recent surveys sponsored by Democrats or Democratic-aligned groups show Republicans either leading outright or holding both top two positions. The same pattern appears in pollsters across the race.

This is not Republican messaging. It is the polling record.

California remains a blue state in November. But June is not November. The top-two system does not care about party registration. It only cares about rank order.

If Democrats divide roughly half the electorate among Swalwell, Porter, Becerra, Steyer, and others while Republicans consolidate roughly a third between Bianco and Hilton, the math becomes uncomfortable very quickly.

California could do something very funny this year.

And this time, the joke would be built into the system Democrats created.

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