I grew up in a conservative household. If my mother were alive today, she would tell you that the last Democrat she voted for was John F. Kennedy. My dad loved Ronald Reagan and William F. Buckley Jr. My dad was also one of the few people I have ever known who voted in every single election. If John Smith was running for dog catcher, my dad was at the polls.
Many of us tend to pay attention to the big picture, national elections for the House and Senate. And that is a very good thing, but sometimes we overlook what's going on in our own backyard, those races for State Rep and State Senate seats.
#gapol: GA Dems hope to make more gains in the state leg this year. But how likely are they to take control of either chamber?
— Niles Francis (@NilesGApol) March 17, 2026
A look at the most competitive races —> https://t.co/Fd2l7qh7rn pic.twitter.com/w26AbOPvou
Currently, Republicans control 28 State Houses while Democrats control 19. There is a bipartisan agreement in Alaska, a power-sharing agreement in Minnesota, and a single-body legislature in Nebraska. So, the GOP is in a good place. But Republicans need to start glancing over their shoulder, because Democrats are coming up behind them and flipping seats. In the past year, Democrats have flipped 28 seats blue that are in reliably red states like Arkansas, Mississippi, and Texas, with margins of victory that should get Republicans' attention. In Texas, for instance, it was enough to get Republican consultant Brendan Steinhauser to declare, “I’m ringing the alarm bell."
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It's a dilemma about which more than one Republican pundit or talking head has lamented. President Donald Trump is not on the ballot in 2026, and he won't be on another one. But his policies are. How does the GOP get Republicans, independents—and maybe a few Democrats who think their party has gone off the deep end—out to the polls to hold not just the House and the Senate, but also those all-important statehouses?
Those 28 flipped seats have given Democrats some incentive. The Iowa State Senate seat Democrats flipped in August of 2025 broke a supermajority in the general assembly. Then three out of six districts in a November 2025 special election in Mississippi produced the same result for Democrats. Also, last November, New Jersey Democrats picked up five seats, and Virginia Democrats picked up a whopping 13 seats.
And here it is in chart form.
— Uncrewed (@Uncrewed) March 13, 2026
Pennsylvania probably has the highest amount of competitive state legislative races this year. There are 28 on the board right now, a number that's probably not going to be topped for a while. pic.twitter.com/XMPkBXTSo0
But here is what should give Republicans even more incentive to pay attention to state elections. The more state legislature seats Democrats flip, the more influence they have over state court judicial nominees. That makes for a friendlier environment for Democrats when they go to court over things like climate issues or voting laws, and we know they will. If Democrats are in the majority in the Statehouse, they also have more leverage over the redistricting process for both congressional and state legislative districts. More Democrats means they have the power to either block Republican gerrymandering attempts or give Democrats the authority to draw redistricting maps and do their own gerrymandering.
But the biggest draw of all to get Republicans to the polls and vote in state elections should be the condition of states that have endured one-party rule for decades. One look at places like California, New York, and Illinois should be more than enough to frighten Republicans to the voting booth.
Over the eight years he was president, Barack Obama lost nearly 1,000 legislative seats. However, much of that could be attributed to Democrats shoving Obamacare down the throats of the American people, and in the 2010 midterm election, they let Obama know what they thought of Obamacare. It led to the Tea Party Movement.
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Ultimately, many issues that begin at the state level eventually make their way to the national level. Note to Republicans: it's a whole lot easier to deal with those issues while they are still at the state level. The best thing Republicans could consistently do for themselves is to pay attention to those state elections.
Candidate slates are set for the May 19 Oregon primary, with two contested partisan races for the Jackson County Board of Commissioners and a five-way Democrat primary battle for an Oregon Senate seat.
— Rogue Valley Times (@RogueValTimes) March 11, 2026
https://t.co/RGu9iOuNv0
