There's a little bit of good news to report out of Virginia this Wednesday morning that might be a harbinger for how the April 21 gerrymandering referendum being pushed by Democrats will fare. Republican Andrew Rice has won a special election in Virginia's 98th House District and will now succeed the late GOP Del. Barry Knight, who died last month after representing the Virginia Beach area for over a decade.
Rice, a deputy commonwealth's attorney, beat his Democrat opponent, Cheryl Smith, by a whopping 25 points; the latest numbers show Rice clocking in with 62.46 percent of the vote compared to Smith's 37.5 percent.
Going into Tuesday's election, the district was generally considered a safe seat for Republicans, so the win by Rice is not altogether shocking; it's the margin of his win that tells the story. When Ms. Smith took on Rice's predecessor, Del. Knight, last November, she garnered 43.2 percent of the vote – that's a significant drop for the Democrat, whose party tends to turn out in droves for special elections (just as the GOP tends to stay home for them).
🚨 HOLY CRAP! Republicans just scored a +14 point OVER PERFORMANCE in the Virginia House of Delegates District 98 Special Election
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) March 18, 2026
Andrew Rice (R) defeats Cheryl Smith (D) by 28+ points, in the Trump+14 district
Apply liberals' logic, this means a RED TSUNAMI is coming 😅🔥 pic.twitter.com/OZImi7xLNe
And, as is noted in the above tweet, this was a +14 Trump district in 2024; yesterday, it was +25 for the GOP (again, according to the numbers as of Wednesday morning).
So, what's going on here? Did Republicans have a rare good showing for a special election, or can we read more into those numbers?
ALSO READ: Virginia Republican Torches RNC for Sitting Out Gerrymander Fight – 'We Are on Our Own' (VIP)
Uh-Oh: New Poll Could Spell Doom for Democrats’ Shameless Gerrymander Scheme in Virginia
Well, when you consider that early voting has already begun on the April 21 gerrymander referendum, it's looking a whole lot like Virginians are not best pleased with the menu of far-left policies – including onerous new taxes and dangerous gun bans – being force-fed to them by state Democrats and their leader, Gov. Abigail Spanberger. If Democrats win the referendum, they will adopt a new congressional map that replaces the current 6D-5R makeup with a 10D-R1 gerrymandered disaster.
Tuesday's election result shows the momentum that swept Spanberger into office in November is now flipping towards Republicans. In other words, Republicans in Virginia overperformed so strongly Tuesday that the gerrymander attempt is all the sudden looking much riskier for Democrats.
Today, Rs outran Trump by ~10% in the VA HD98 special - an anomalous result when the average special sees Dems outrun Kamala by ~12%.
— Ethan C7 (@ECaliberSeven) March 18, 2026
This result aligns with early data for VA’s April 21 redistricting referendum, which shows MUCH higher turnout in GOP areas than Dem ones atm. pic.twitter.com/aPbt8LuzVJ
Early voting on the gerrymandering referendum has been underway since March 6, and the numbers thus far seem to show turnout is strongest in those areas that would be disenfranchised by the screwy new congressional map being pushed by Democrats. That, along with the special election results, could show that Virginia – despite all appearances – could still have a pulse after all.
The swing toward Republicans suggests Virginia voters may be souring fast on Democrat overreach. And that's a very good thing, indeed.
Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
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