Analysis: Democrats Have Too Many Senate Seats That Are Competitive

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich dropped an interesting X/Twitter post early Sunday morning:

Something interesting and unpredictable is happening around the country. In blue states Republicans are doing unusually well…In Minnesota Republican senate candidate Michelle Lafoya is tied at 47 with Democratic Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan. Hard to believe there is a blue wave coming when states like Minnesota and Oregon are in play. The continued rise of the big government socialist-weird values Democrats seems to be turning off a lot of people even in states that have traditionally been very leftwing.

Now, I have consistently argued that the GOP has a clear edge when it comes to holding onto the Senate majority. This is because the Republicans have a 53 to 47-seat majority in the Senate, with 35 seats up in 2026. The Democrats need a net pick up of four seats to win control. But only two Republican seats – Maine and North Carolina – are in competitive states. The other 20 GOP seats are in states Donald Trump won by double digits. That almost never happens in Senate elections, let alone twice.

In the 2025 Virginia elections, the Democrats won in a landslide, but they didn’t carry a single state legislative district where Trump won with that margin.

This year, as Speaker Gingrich mentions, the GOP is doing far better than it should be doing in several Democrat-held Senate seats. This is presumably because, as the Speaker mentioned, the Democrats as a party have gone far too left on the issues, and especially in some of these specific seats, a particular Democrat candidate is too far to the left. Please remember - the Democrats cannot afford to lose even a single one of these Democrat-held seats, and even in the “blue wave” of 2018, they still lost a seat in a major upset in Florida.

In this column, I will update some of these races:

Georgia: Jon Ossoff / 50.61 percent D / Lean D

Sen. Ossoff is one of the leading fundraisers in the nation, having raised $60 million so far and nearly $33 million on hand. Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA-10) has less than $2 million. One major positive thing for Collins is the state polling; the RCP average shows Ossoff up only 47.3 percent to 41.8 percent. And the Fox News polls that has Ossoff at 56 percent seems to be an outlier. Another major positive for Collins may come from the gubernatorial race, which may provide coattails and money (that bleeds over). The GOP has chosen a billionaire named Rick Jackson, who has already spent over $108 million to win his party’s primary and runoff. Jackson is certainly going to keep spending and pushing out conservative talking points that could educate the voters for the Senate race as well. Meanwhile, the Democrats foolishly chose former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms as their candidate. Bottoms left electoral politics in 2021 when she unprecedently walked away from running for a second term as mayor – in a heavily Democrat city – because her “tenure was marked by turmoil as Atlanta, like other major cities at the time, grappled with the onset of the pandemic, social unrest and spikes in crime.” She is a very weak candidate.

Michigan: Gary Peters (retiring) / Lean D

The Republican candidate, former Rep. Mike Rogers, who narrowly lost the 2024 Senate race, is stockpiling money and waiting for the Democrats to select their nominee. For the August 4 Democrat primary, radical Muslim Abdul El Sayed seems to have established a primary edge over the more moderate establishment Democrat, Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI). State Senator McMorrow, the third candidate who was trying to run as the more electable crazy left-winger, dropped out of the race as her polling numbers steadily declined. If Bernie Bro El Sayed wins the primary, he will have to defend his history of crazed political positions/statements: a call to defund the police; saying “America deserved 9/11”; claiming the terror group Hamas, which hates Christians and has plenty of American blood on its hands, is a “lesser evil” than Israel; and his consistent Jew-bating. Unfortunately for him, he will be running in a much less Democrat-leaning area than the DSA nuts are running in, as Michigan has been won by President Trump.

Minnesota: Tina Smith (retiring) / Likely D

With Sen. Smith retiring, both parties have competitive August 11 primaries to decide whom their nominees for Senate will be. The Democrats are having a faceoff between Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN-02), a moderate establishment Democrat, and Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, a Native American politician who is a Bernie Bro. Craig is the clear fundraising leader. The GOP has Michele Tafoya, an American journalist and sports broadcaster who has worked for ABC, NBC, CBS, and ESPN, having an edge over several semi-serious opponents. Tafoya is the only credible Republican fundraiser. In his X/Twitter feed, Speaker Gingrich referenced an internal Craig poll that shows Republican Tafoya is tied with Flanagan in a potential general election. “However, that tie comes only after language tying Flanagan to Minnesota’s fraud saga was invoked.” The key for this race is that despite what a public poll shows, Flanagan is probably a much weaker candidate than Craig, and if Flanagan wins, the GOP COULD take advantage. Flanagan is probably weaker because: 1) she is a Bernie Bro with crazy positions; and 2) (as the push poll mentions) she is tied to Gov. Walz and his scandalous record. However, Minnesota is still a state where the Democrats haven’t lost a statewide race since 2006, when the Republican incumbent governor barely held on among a “blue wave” with a plurality of the vote. And the Senate race is a federal race, which normally is more solid for the majority party in the state (here, the Democrats).

New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (retiring) / Lean D

Recently, New Hampshire has shifted substantially towards the Democrats in federal races. However, Republican former Sen. John Sununu, the son and brother of popular Republican New Hampshire governors, who was ousted by Shaheen in 2008, is making a surprisingly strong comeback. Rep. Chris Pappas (NH-01), the Democrat who represents half of the state, only has a 46.3 percent to 43 percent RCP lead over Sununu. Sununu has also had good fundraising, although Pappas still has raised more money and doesn’t face a primary. Sununu is, however, very likely to win his primary over former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, as Sununu was endorsed by President Trump and has a solid lead over his opponent, in most polls with easily over half the vote.

The Democrats understand how tough their Senate path is this year to win the majority. This is why they are constantly pushing propaganda to depress GOP turnout, playing the Indy Imitation Game, utilizing other electoral tricks, and ditching the Oysterfuhrer in Maine after his polling soured.

Remember this. Don’t believe their lies.

Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.

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