The Big Senate Brawl in the Lone Star State

Part 2 of The Republicans Bounce Back (a Little) in the Battle for the U.S. Senate

One of my political little birdies reached out to me to request a separate column on the crazy competitive Texas U.S. Senate race. And because I am an obliging fellow, here it is:

Texas: John Cornyn / 53.51% R / Lean R

John Cornyn is a four-term U.S. Senator from Texas. When I worked in the U.S. Senate on the Senate Judiciary Committee, I worked with his staff – including now Rep. Chip Roy – who were always pleasant and willing to cooperate (while still working towards conservative goals).

Sen. Cornyn ran recently for Senate Majority Leader, as he had served before in the Whip position, but he lost to now-Majority Leader John Thune. Considering that Cornyn no longer has a leadership position and that he is not leading any committee, I expected him to retire when Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton announced his primary challenge.

But surprisingly, Cornyn didn’t.

Now, there are four major candidates running for Texas Senator, and still others may enter. Sen. Cornyn is facing off against Attorney General Paxton in the Republican primary. Two-term Republican Rep. Wesley Hunt is spending money to build up his name recognition and potentially waiting in the wings. Meanwhile, on the Democrat side, former two-term Rep. Colin Allred is the favorite, although state Rep. James Talarico, considered a rising star in Texas, is about to challenge him.

There is no question that Sen. Cornyn is in a bad situation for an incumbent. When Paxton initially announced, the polling showed Paxton ahead by double digits. Since then, Cornyn and his allies have unleashed millions of dollars in advertising, so that the current RCP average in the Republican primary has Paxton only up 37.3 percent to 35 percent.

Assuming Cornyn makes it to the general election, the Democrat candidate will certainly be what I like to call a “strong second-tier” nominee. By this, I mean that the likely candidate, most likely Allred but possibly Talarico, won’t be a sitting and prominent elected official (state Representative is not “prominent” in Texas). However, he will be able to raise the money necessary to have a decent chance to win against Cornyn, who, if he makes it through, will have taken a pounding from Paxton (and/or someone else).

Right now, the little polling in the Democrat race shows that Allred is leading in the Democrat primary. I also find it hard to believe that Talarico, a white heterosexual male and practicing Christian, can beat Allred, who is black. In the primary, the vast number of Democrat participants will be minorities themselves or "Karen" types who favor minorities and dislike the religious.

Republicans Doomed, Once Again: This Time in the 2026 Mid-Terms

Sen. Cornyn has strong support from the Republican Senate leadership for his primary (which isn’t surprising since they always back the incumbent). The Senate Leadership Fund, a major super PAC organization that is an auxiliary for the Republican Senate leadership, has been spending up to $75 million for Cornyn. The National Republican Senate Committee, the official arm of the Republican Senate leadership, has also recently come out against Rep. Hunt to intimidate him to stay out of the primary.

I understand why they are so worried about Rep. Hunt. If he runs, the polling shows he is close behind the other two candidates. Further, the NRSC is probably worried that Hunt might take advantage of what I have always referred to as the “Feingold Maneuver.” In 1992, a little-known state Senator, Russ Feingold, was running for the Democrat nomination for U.S. Senate in Wisconsin. He was far behind the frontrunners, a congressman and a prominent businessman. However, the two others focused all their advertising fire on the other, piling negatives on both, and allowing Feingold to be the “clean” candidate and run up the middle to victory. Republican Sen. Deb Fischer of Nebraska, and former Senator and current Republican Gov. Mike Braun of Indiana have also won their initial races using the Feingold Maneuver.

Attorney General Paxton, meanwhile, is trying to run as the outsider who is more MAGA. It is unclear that he is, however, as President Trump has not yet weighed in, and the president’s former campaign manager, Chris LaCivita – full disclosure, I worked with him for Ken Cuccinelli in 2009 – has been selected by Sen. Cornyn to manage a Cornyn Super PAC. Cornyn has also tapped Tony Fabrizio, another senior Trump strategist, to work on his campaign.

If I were a betting man (which I am not), I would bet that Trump will endorse Cornyn, considering who is working for Cornyn and the fact that Trump is very focused on holding the Senate in the 2026 midterms. But we will see.

There is no question that both Republicans have their own weaknesses. Cornyn’s problem is that for most of his career, he has been an establishment type, and although generally popular in Texas – before this most recent race – he was not known for developing his own, strong personal brand. He has drifted left at times, including on guns and on immigration. He is also somewhat boring (but no offense, Senator).

Ken Paxton is certainly not boring, but he has some major liabilities of his own. Paxton was impeached by the Republican majority of the state House of Representatives, although he was not removed by the state Senate. He was accused of abusing his office to protect a political donor. More recently, his wife, a state Senator in Texas, filed for divorce, citing the “biblical grounds” of adultery.

It is also worth noting that as a child, Paxton nearly lost an eye in a game of hide-and-seek, and as a result, his good eye is green, and his damaged one is brown and droopy. While no voter will claim to be affected by the looks of the candidate, it certainly does matter.

As a result of his weaknesses, Paxton tends to run behind Cornyn when matched against the Democrats.

Right now, the Republican primary campaign is going heavily negative. Cornyn is hitting Paxton hard on his alleged adultery. He has also alleged that Paxton committed mortgage fraud by claiming multiple properties as his primary residence on bank loans. Cornyn has criticized Paxton’s investment holdings in an investment fund, noting the attorney general uses them despite repeatedly slamming that fund for allegedly bleeding Texans’ pocketbooks dry by illegally conspiring to drive up energy prices. Meanwhile, Paxton, with less money in the bank, hasn’t started advertising, but in an interview, he has claimed that Texas Republicans “know that he’s [Cornyn] voted against them on 2nd Amendment issues. He’s not been a Donald Trump supporter. He’s not been a border wall supporter.” Soon, Paxton will be pushing those attacks on television.

If Rep. Hunt does not enter the race, Sen. Cornyn seems to be on the upswing, and, as I said before, I believe President Trump might be tempted to back his reelection. And that may be his strategy.) If that is the case, Cornyn easily wins the primary and easily beats the Democrat nominee, likely Allred. However, if Attorney General Paxton wins the nomination, he would still be the favorite to win the general election in the conservative state of Texas, although it might be a little closer in the ballot box.

"We'll (Just Have to) See What Happens."

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