So, the special elections came and went, and the MSM is very excited with the final results. The GOP held two open U.S. House seats in Florida while losing a Democrat-held State Supreme Court seat in Wisconsin. Politico, which was, until recently, being funded by the Biden administration, has had at least three articles documenting what they presume will be just the beginning of a supposed coming Democrat “blue wave” — see here and here and here.

Now, I have theorized before that the MSM has been working overtime to recreate the political situation following the 1994 elections, when – the CW says – the radically conservative budget cutters in the GOP, led by Newt Gingrich, went too far, too fast, politically, and were rebuked by the voters in the 1996 elections, when the Democrats held the presidency and gained seats in the House (although they didn’t take control). This time, the new figure to be targeted – “Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and polarize it” – is Elon Musk, the now odious billionaire who the left used to love – when he was working on electric cars and voting Democrat – prior to two years ago.

But is this really going to happen? And, for that matter, did this same strategy really work before, in 1996?

I have my doubts.

Here is what we know based on the facts. The RCP average for President Trump’s job approval stands at 47.7 percent, with his disapproval at 49.9 percent. As we know, the RCP average was the closest average to being correct in the 2024 presidential election, being off by only 2 percent (in favor of Kamala Harris). Nothing earth-shattering here; electoral mid-term disasters don’t normally happen unless the president’s approval sinks into the low 40’s or even the 30’s, as exemplified by the polling of President George W. Bush.

In the 2025 Florida races, Jimmy Patronis in the 1st District and Randy Fine in the 6th District — the latter of whom CW claimed was running scared — both won 57 percent of the two-party vote. The Democrats in those races dramatically outraised them – $6.5 million to $2.1 million in the 1st; $10 million to $1 million in the 6th – thanks to a frenzied national donor audience of left-wing Democrats who want to crush all Republicans and hate Donald Trump with a passion.  In 2024, in those House races, the very same Democrat lost 66 percent to 34 percent in the 1st, and another Democrat lost 66.5 percent to 33.5 percent in the 6th, in both cases to established and popular incumbents. Meanwhile, Donald Trump got 68 percent in the 1st District and 64 percent in the 6th.  

In the 2025 Wisconsin Supreme Court race, the Democrat won 55 percent to 45 percent over the Republican. In the last Supreme Court race in Wisconsin, in 2023, the Democrat won by a similar 55 percent to 44 percent over the Republican. In 2025, the Democrat outspent the Republican two to one ($22 million to $11 million), although outside spending gave the edge to the Republican.

Since Donald Trump took over the Republican Party, the party alignments have dramatically changed. Prior to Trump, Republicans tended to overperform in special elections since the most affluent voters tended to vote Republican and were more reliable for non-presidential year elections. Post-Trump, the coalitions have switched, and the GOP has had a problem maintaining its strength in non-presidential year elections as the more affluent voters have become increasingly Democrat.

RELATED: Lessons Learned From Tuesday's Elections: One Issue That's Super Popular, and One Person Who Might Not Be

Democrats Remain in Denial After Losing Congressional Races in Florida

All put together, none of this strikes me as strong evidence for a coming blue wave in the 2026 mid-terms. Could the Democrats win the U.S. House that year? (The Senate is very unlikely for reasons I have already explained.) Yes, certainly, with the numbers as tight as they are. But there is no convincing evidence yet of a blue wave. Certainly, the evidence from the results on Tuesday is not particularly convincing, considering the facts that I outlined above.

But Politico, and the MSM it well represents, really wants to see a blue wave in 2026. Because everyone they know and like agrees with them that Donald Trump is the devil and that he and his Republicans are going to destroy the country. So, the American people will surely punish him/them. Like the Democrats/MSM projected would happen in 2024. Except, things didn’t work out that way, then, and there is no such assurance of it happening next year, either.  

But don’t worry – the Democrats/MSM are going to keep projecting this wave until it does or doesn’t happen in 2026. “We’ll see how that works out” for them.

BTW, I am not sure that the CW I mentioned above about the 1994 and 1996 elections is true, either. In 1994, the GOP won in a red wave called the Gingrich Revolution that captured control of both the House and Senate; for the former, it was the first time the Republicans controlled that chamber in 40 years. That year, the GOP won 54 seats in the House and eight seats in the Senate. In 1996, after all the Democrat/MSM attacks on the “Contract on America” and “Newt (the) Grinch,” the Democrats won back a net eight seats in the House, and they lost two more Senate seats. They did, however, hold the presidency, where Bill Clinton solidly beat Bob Dole and Ross Perot.  

Now, I liked Bob Dole. I voted for him. But I must admit, he was a rather poor candidate that year, who was much older than Bill Clinton and rather inarticulate. Plus, the economy was in good shape.  

As they did in 1995-1996, I believe the Democrats/MSM are just projecting the latest Republican DOOM scenario.  

Editor's Note: The Democrat Party has never been less popular as voters reject its globalist agenda.

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