[This is a continuation of my "Political Lessons From President George W. Bush" series, in which I discuss some political lessons Republicans could learn from the second term of President George W. Bush. Briefly, I believe that it is important for a Republican president to avoid the second-term political collapse that happened to President Bush and that, to do so, a Republican president, e.g., Donald Trump, needs to follow a bifurcated strategy to keep his polling support up among both the GOP party base and with independents. You can read Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3, here and here and here, respectively.] 

Now, let’s look at the true independents, who make up about 6 percent of the voting public. In the 2024 election, independents – both true independents and independents who were party leaners – voted 48 to 42 percent for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump, a big drop from the 15-point margin Joe Biden had won them by in 2020. (There is no data for true independents alone.)   

As I explained during the 2024 election, these true independents didn’t much care for Donald Trump as a person – they didn’t like his “mean tweets” – but they also had a major problem with Joe Biden’s presidential record, which they felt (correctly) was far worse than Trump’s first term record. Thus, they were susceptible to the Trump campaign’s strategy, which focused on excoriating Biden-Harris for the poor economy and for the chaos caused by the open border and the Biden-Harris administration’s – and other Democrats' – unwillingness to enforce the criminal laws. Meanwhile, the Harris campaign, apparently hemmed in by Joe Biden’s demand that she not separate herself from the Biden record, just regurgitated the “Trump is the devil” campaign that independents had heard nonstop since 2015 and had already shown a resistance to.

Based on this, I believe Donald Trump should push to maximize his support among true independents by prioritizing a good economy and a reduction in the chaos.  

Right now, the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average Trump job approval has gone down, sitting at 47.9  percent approval to 48.8 percent disapproval. Once again, I – and others – find it suspicious that some polls on the average – Reuters, NBC, Quinnipiac, CNN, Atlas, and Marist – have Trump down by a considerable amount, while others – Rasmussen, RMG, Emerson, Trafalgar, CBS, TIPP, and Harris – have him up, sometimes substantially. The latter polls were shown to be more accurate in the last cycle, except for Atlas, which was the most accurate. Nevertheless, I still recommend going with the average here since that is what most of the MSM will go with and because we can never be sure which poll will maintain its accuracy – see the sad tale of Zogby polling, which was initially praised for its accuracy in the late 90’s and is now largely ignored.  

Based on this number, Donald Trump is far from being in the polling zone of danger.  

And this is the average that is the important number. Lots of political observers will also focus on the specific issue numbers for the Trump administration.  Especially his approval for “managing the economy.” But I don’t see the need; in the Bush years, general approval was what led the newscasts, and the rest of the approvals were just an afterthought.

But, to continue from my earlier column, let’s break things down on the different fronts that the Trump administration has been active on. (NOTE: This evaluation of the issues focuses solely on their political importance and not an evaluation of their merits.) The more prominent issue areas include:

• Border & Immigration — True independents are likely to support removing illegal aliens from the U.S., and they will expect the Trump administration to follow through on its promises. The MSM/Democrats can be expected to push sob stories about “innocent illegal aliens” – including gang-bangers – being forced out of the country, but the vast size of the illegal invasion during the Biden years and the obvious crime wave it led to make this a tough sell to true independents. 

• Democrats in the Trump administration — All independents tend to favor “bipartisanship.”  

• DOGE: Cutting Government Spending — So far, the Democrats are trying to recreate their 1995 backlash against the Newt Gingrich led-Contract With America revolution, which also promised large cuts in government spending. Back then, Hillary Clinton and others memorably disparaged Gingrich as supposedly “hating” Big Bird and Barney for wanting to stop federal spending on PBS. The Democrats also demonized Newt Gingrich as a “Christmas Grinch.” Today, they are attempting pretty much the same thing with Elon Musk. While Musk’s own polling has gone down, unlike Gingrich, he isn’t running for anything, and DOGE is still popular. Another poll shows that 52 percent of independents believe that up to a quarter of all government spending is wasted. Also, as one of my RedState colleagues has written, even CNN has been forced to concede that the DOGE spending cuts are popular. And all this polling means that true independents are even more likely to support DOGE spending cuts (once Democrat leaners are removed from the group). 

• Inflation — Inflation was consistently the number one issue for voters during the 2024 campaign. It is especially important to true independents, who don’t have any real party ties to “tie” them down. And, since President Trump took over, inflation has been plummeting down, which should be a positive for him soon.   

• Israel & Antisemitism — A significant portion of the true independents that flipped are Jewish Americans and others who are supportive of Israel and are disturbed by the out-of-control antisemitism in the U.S. under Joe Biden. Trump has been following through on his promises, allowing Israel to defend itself, threatening federal funding to colleges that don’t protect their students, demanding the prosecution of antisemitic criminals, and even deporting foreign students who were leading figures in the antisemitic mobs on campuses. The MSM/Democrat claim that they are resisting the latter because it infringes on the First Amendment is both hypocritical and ironic, considering that the left isn’t known for protecting free speech; and it is easily disproven when you have video of these foreign students leading actual riots in favor of an Islamist group.   

• Government Firings — Once again, the Democrats are trying to recreate their 1995 backlash against the GOP’s attempts to reduce the government workforce. This may be working, although some independents find nothing unusual about workers having to list what they did during the work week – I do it every week for the non-profit I work for – and don’t understand why government workers should have protections that other workers don’t have.  

• Social Security — An old standby of Democrats is to decry Republicans for wanting to gut Medicare and Social Security and, sometimes, to “throw granny off the cliff.” So, it wasn’t too wise of Elon Musk to speculate about Social Security cuts. This could hurt the GOP with true independents, which is why President Trump has consistently made it very clear that he isn’t going to let it happen.  

• Tariffs — A portion of the true independents are working-class workers who generally support tariffs to protect American jobs and industries. This is why tariffs have long been politically popular with swing voters and implemented by GOP Presidents  – from William McKinley to Ronald Reagan to George W. Bush. So far, President Trump has threatened tariffs “liberally” but implemented them more “conservatively.”  This may make sense, considering many economists believe tariffs can be damaging to the economy overall.   

• Tax Cuts — The tax cuts pushed through by President Trump in his first term are likely to be made permanent, which is good because a tax increase could easily lead to a recession or deepen the one that may have already started under Joe Biden. 

• Trans Issue — This issue is one of the “80/20” issues that the MSM/Democrats have strangely dug in their heels to fight over. No true independents are with the MSM/Democrats on this; only part of the Democrat base supports them.

• Ukraine — A significant portion of the true independents that flipped are supportive of Ukraine in its struggle against Russia. Because of constant Democrat/MSM propaganda about “Russia, Russia, Russia” against Donald Trump, there will inevitably be some suspicion that Trump will favor the Russians among non-Republicans. Thus, this is still an issue he needs to be careful with.

Of course, President Trump has one major advantage that President Bush did not have in the aughts. In 2025, the Democrat Party seems to be cratering in its approval number…

To be concluded in part V.