Breakaway Somaliland Now Challenging Iranian, Houthi Dominance in Red Sea

The new breakaway country of Somaliland is proving to be a thorn in the side of Iran and its Houthi proxies. And here's the interesting bit; even as negotiations with the United States are underway to try to bring an end to hostilities, Somaliland's friendliness towards the United States and Israel, and their willingness to allow U.S. basing of military assets, including at the deep-water port of Berbera, is reportedly making Iran and the Houthis feel somewhat maladjusted.

Iran is said to be ‘deeply threatened’ by the small African breakaway state, Somaliland, because of the potential for U.S., Israeli and Western powers to use its deep water port and airbase.
Such moves would severely disrupt Iran’s plan to use their proxy, Yemen’s Houthi terror group, to attack Red Sea shipping.
Iran has been accused of pressuring the Houthis to renew their strikes on shipping, particularly in the Red Sea’s Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. The waterway has become the main route for oil to ship out of the Middle East to Asia since the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed.

The Houthis are facing the likely termination of Iranian support; a supposed end to any Iranian support for terrorist proxies is pretty certain to be part of any peace deal. To what extent Iran intends to abide by any such deal, well, let's just say that it's not likely.

But the pro-U.S. Somaliland has thrown a wrench in the politics of the region.

Lisa Daftari, a Middle East and foreign policy expert, told Fox News Digital, "Iran’s regime is deeply threatened by what Somaliland represents in an emerging pro‑Western, potentially pro‑Israel foothold overlooking the Bab el‑Mandeb, that could blunt Tehran’s leverage via the Houthis over Red Sea shipping and Israel."
Daftari, the editor‑in‑chief of The Foreign Desk, said, "that’s why Iran‑backed Houthis are already explicitly threatening to strike any Israeli or Western military presence in Somaliland and warning they could move to choke the Bab el‑Mandeb if the conflict with the U.S. and Israel escalates."

Threatening, yes, but how likely are they to be successful with the current extensive American deployments in the region? They are instead rather likely to join Iran's navy in Davey Jones' locker or, in the case of their land-based forces, likely to join Iran's army and air force in being a random scattering of spare parts.

Could Somaliland Become a New U.S. Outpost in Battle for Key Sea Lanes?

Somaliland, in another interesting move, appears to be establishing diplomatic relations with Israel. The breakaway country has already opened an embassy in Jerusalem, and Israel, reportedly, according to the Reuters news service, plans to reciprocate.

Somaliland, a breakaway region of Somalia, will set up an embassy in Jerusalem soon, its ambassador said on Tuesday, after Israel became the first country to formally recognise the self-declared ‌republic.
In turn, Israel is expected to set up an embassy in Somaliland's capital Hargeisa, Ambassador Mohamed Hagi said in a post on X.
Israel recognised Somaliland as an independent and sovereign state in December, a move Somalia rejected and termed a "deliberate attack" on its sovereignty.

Interesting times.

There has, to date, been no comment from the Trump administration about any official move to base assets in Somaliland, although President Trump, in April, struck an uncharacteristically vague tone on the matter, saying merely "We're looking into it." Any such move would, of course, make Iran and the Houthis upset, and that would seem to be a pretty good indication that such a move is worth considering.

This part of the world has never been what anyone would call "stable." We can only try to stay abreast of current happenings in a place where the USA has interests but few allies. While Somaliland isn't exactly a military or economic powerhouse, they appear to be looking at recent events and carefully evaluating what side its falafel is buttered on.

It can't be easy to be a small, relatively new country in that part of the world, and Somaliland's seeming choice of allies probably won't earn it a lot of local affection. But they would seem to have made their decision, and the United States should take a careful look at their offer of basing - and probably should offer formal recognition, as well. If that gets the mullahs in Tehran all torqued up, so much the better.

Editor's Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.

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