China is the United States' primary geopolitical rival now. The Middle Kingdom has been arming up, building a navy, and casting a speculative eye at Taiwan - and some other places in the western Pacific. This is the only country right now that could engage the United States in anything like a near-peer conflict.
President Trump is set to visit China in the next few days, and there is, reportedly, a lot on the agenda for him to discuss with China's leader Xi Jinping. It would be fascinating to be a fly on the wall during these discussions, as human rights and Iran, among other things, are sure to be on the agenda.
After postponing a scheduled trip to China from March to May due to the U.S. strikes on Iran, President Donald Trump is set to visit the country for the first time since 2017 and is heading into the meeting with a long agenda.
While the two countries are often seen at odds, Trump maintains he has a good relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
The two leaders are expected to cover several topics during the two-day visit, including trade, technology, human rights, security and Iran.
The president heads into the meeting with a trade deficit with China of $202.1 billion in 2025, according to the Office of the United States Trade Representative. China is the third-largest trade partner with the U.S. Trump has tried to close that gap with his tariffs, but has run into legal roadblocks in court over the legality of his tariff policies.
Last fall, when the two leaders met, they agreed on a handful of key trade issues, including China’s purchase of American soybeans and a rare earth deal.
Iran is sure to be a hot topic. Iran is a major supplier of oil to China, and at the moment, Iran isn't selling much (if any) oil; President Trump has his boot on their necks. That situation doesn't look likely to be resolved before President Trump makes his China trip, so there may be some interesting discussion there, especially since China has been at least tangentially involved in Operation Epic Fury - and not on our side.
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Here's a likely point of discussion:
Iranian crude oil accounts for about 12% of China’s total crude oil imports, according to the Center for Global Energy Policy at Columbia. However, China imports nearly half of its crude oil from Middle Eastern countries, including Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Oman, Kuwait and Qatar.
With nearly 50% of China’s crude oil imports relying on transit through the Strait of Hormuz, Trump will likely lean on China’s influence with Iran to put pressure on the Islamic Republic to clear the vital waterway.
Could President Trump cajole China into leaning on Iran to make a deal? It would seem a very Trumpian tactic.
China is, yes, our primary geopolitical rival. They are also a major trade partner. They probably wield more international influence than any nation other than the United States. They have problems, not least of which is an economy that is a fragile house of cards and a population that is in a demographic doom spiral. But they are also the only nation that, along with the United States, may be able to pressure Iran into accepting some kind of a deal to end their conflict with the United States and Israel.
Other topics are reported to include drug smuggling, especially fentanyl and fentanyl precursors, general trade, tariffs, and China's human rights record. Smart money, though, puts the situation with Iran at the top of the agenda.
President Trump is currently scheduled to meet with Chairman XI on May 14th - 15th. Xi is reportedly set to fly to Washington for further talks, although no date for that visit has yet to be announced. Stay tuned - this may get downright interesting.
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