Just when you thought things in the Middle East couldn't get any more interesting - and I mean interesting as in the "ancient Chinese curse" sense - now there are reports that China is preparing weapons shipments for the remains of Iran's theocratic regime. More interesting still, the shipments are reported to include air-defense systems.
US intelligence indicates that China is preparing to deliver new air defense systems to Iran within the next few weeks, according to three people familiar with recent intelligence assessments.
It would be a provocative move considering Beijing said it helped broker the fragile ceasefire agreement that paused the war between Iran and the US earlier this week. President Donald Trump is also set to visit China early next month for talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
The intelligence also underscores how Iran may be using the ceasefire as an opportunity to replenish certain weapons systems with the help of key foreign partners.
Of course, Iran is using the ceasefire as a chance to re-arm. It's what they do. It's what their proxies, like Hamas and Hezbollah, do - they see any ceasefire as temporary, and a chance to recruit, re-arm, re-equip, train, and plan the next attack.
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And if there is any accuracy to these reports, what Beijing may be sending may be aimed directly at our present unchecked air dominance:
The systems Beijing is preparing to transfer are shoulder-fired anti-air missile systems known as MANPADs, the sources said, which posed an asymmetric threat to low-flying US military aircraft throughout the course of the five-week war and could again if the ceasefire falls apart.
If true, this is aimed - play on words, unintentional - directly at our modus operandi in the skies over Iran. While limited in range, these kinds of systems, man-portable air defense systems, or MANPADs, can be very effective against low-flying aircraft. They may not be effective against our newest aircraft, like the stealthy F-35, but they may well force us to move older aircraft like the vaunted and very effective A-10s out of the area. Worse, these systems aren't bound to fixed launch locations or big vehicles; a couple of goblins can carry a few of these around, hide in known aircraft transit lanes, and make a pretty big nuisance of themselves.
China, of course, is denying everything.
A spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in Washington said, “China has never provided weapons to any party to the conflict; the information in question is untrue.”
“As a responsible major country, China consistently fulfills its international obligations. We urge the U.S. side to refrain from making baseless allegations, maliciously drawing connections, and engaging in sensationalism; we hope that relevant parties will do more to help de-escalate tensions.”
A certain amount of skepticism is in order here.
President Trump is, at the moment, scheduled to meet with the Chinese Chairman Xi in Beijing in May. It seems likely that China's support for Iran will be on the table for discussion. But China depends heavily on Iranian oil, which they have been getting at generous terms, and the Chinese Communist Party doubtless sees it as being in the Middle Kingdom's interests to keep the mullahs in charge and the oil spigots open.
Things may be about to get even more complicated.
Editor's Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
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