Human behavior is very complex, and it's not always easy to discern trends; some patterns of behavior take years to become apparent. One such is the social contagion we call "transgenderism," that being the notion that sex may be genetically determined at conception (it is), but that one can decide to change it up later (you can't). This notion is based on an actual psychological ailment, gender dysphoria, which has been known about for decades. Even the idea of "gender-affirming" medical treatments isn't all that new; the idea had been on the fringes of the medical community since the 1920s, and in the early 1970s, a practitioner named Dr. Stanley Biber, in his clinic, made the town of Trinidad, Colorado, the "sex-change capital of the world."
Lately, though, the trend has accelerated into what we call a social contagion. American and European youths in particular have been caught up in the wave, and there are too many clinics catering to the contagion, with activists masquerading as counselors. Now it's easy to point out that the people who are falling into this have their issues; many of them, almost certainly, do not really suffer from gender dysphoria, but there is some underlying instability that pushes them in that direction.
Also, in recent months, there have been several high-profile mass shootings here in the USA and even one in Canada, wherein the alleged shooter was transgender. Which begs the question: Are we witnessing a transgender crime wave?
First, let's look at the denominator. There are estimated to be as many as 2.3 million transgender people in the United States, although I suspect that number is on the high side. Of that number, reportedly 3/4 are between the ages of 13 and 35, with 1/4 being between 13 and 17. So this appears to be a contagion that mostly affects younger people.
The numerator, now, that's a data point that's a little harder to winkle out. Yes, there have been some high-profile events, and we have and will cover those right here at RedState, but it's the trend I'm looking for just now.
Read More: Police ID Pawtucket Ice Rink Shooter as Transgender Father of Three Who Went by 'Roberta'
New: Canadian Mass Shooter Identified As Transgender, Authorities Rush to Not 'Misgender'
Here, data is sketchy, probably in part because we're looking at a relatively small sector of the general population - less than 5 percent. But - and not to downplay the horrors of the recent mass shootings I described above - most of the data doesn't seem to indicate that transgender people are at a higher risk for violent crime than normal people, when you adjust for actual sex, determined by genetics. But there are some interesting tidbits in the data.
One study, published out in Sweden in 2011, did lead to this conclusion:
Persons with transsexualism, after sex reassignment, have considerably higher risks for mortality, suicidal behaviour, and psychiatric morbidity than the general population. Our findings suggest that sex reassignment, although alleviating gender dysphoria, may not suffice as treatment for transsexualism, and should inspire improved psychiatric and somatic care after sex reassignment for this patient group.
Now there's an interesting data point; yes, transgender people are more prone to various psychological issues, although I would argue that psychiatric care before, not after, sex reassignment, is in order.
The numbers are also interesting: Male-to-female transitions, which appear to make up the majority of the high-profile mass shooters, retained a "male pattern of criminality," meaning that they retained the male tendency of greater rates of violent crime. Female-to-male transitions also offended at a higher rate than female controls, although they didn't exceed the rates of male controls.
So, the data is interesting, but not overwhelming. What conclusions can we draw from this?
As is so often the case with these kinds of trends, it makes me wonder if the causal chain is being correctly identified. It may not be that transgender people are inherently more unstable, to the point where a mass atrocity is likely; it may be that inherently unstable people are more likely to identify as transgender suddenly. In other words, for a person who is already behaving in a worrisome manner, showing a trend of increasing instability, a sudden decision that they are "transgender" may be a warning sign.
This should, in a sane world, lead to reprioritization as to how these people are treated. In the case of the recent mass shooting in Canada, my colleague Bonchie writes:
While there's still more to learn, this appears to fit the recent trend of trans-identifying individuals committing mass shootings. People who clearly needed real help were instead affirmed, while their mental illness flourished. How many more people need to die before those in power stop this madness and start speaking the truth? Judging by how the Canadian authorities are responding, the answer is, unfortunately, not zero.
This is the answer. I've been saying, and writing, for years now that the people who identify as "transgender" should not be treated with hormones that can change behavior, sometimes dramatically. They should not be treated with surgeries, which are irreversible and often lead to debilitating results. They should be treated with therapy, as gender dysphoria has been traditionally treated for decades.
Most of all, they should be treated with a harsh delivery of truth: That therapy should be based on the premise, "I know, you think you're actually a woman; you're not." Otherwise, we are enabling instability that can lead to dramatically bad results. That's the needful act, regardless of the percentages of transgender people who actually commit atrocities. That's the needful act; a simple yet forceful acknowledgement of reality, both in the nature of human sex and in the evaluation and treatment of people who are demonstrating serious signs of instability.
These are facts. And facts are stubborn things. Sooner or later, no matter how hard activists may shout, facts must be acknowledged.
Editor's Note: This article was updated post-publication for clarity.
