The American F-22 Raptor may be the best air-superiority fighter in the world, but we only have 185 of them, and no more will be built. The F-35 is struggling to fill some of the roles of several other aircraft. The new F-47 is some years away yet. The same applies to the new B-21 stealth bomber.
We just don't have enough aircraft. A Mitchell Institute study has released findings along those lines, noting that for a near-peer conflict, we will need no less than 500 6th-generation fighters and bombers.
The U.S. Air Force must buy at least 500 sixth-generation fighters and bombers — more than it already plans — to be able to prevail in a war against China, the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies said Monday.
In its policy paper, “Strategic Attack: Maintaining the Air Force’s Capacity to Deny Enemy Sanctuaries,” experts from the Mitchell Institute argue that the Air Force needs at least 300 next-generation F-47 fighters and at least 200 B-21 Raider stealth bombers to counter China. The Air Force has previously signaled it plans to buy at least 185 F-47s from Boeing and at least 100 Northrop Grumman-made B-21s.
In other words, we need to nearly double that number, if we are to face China - or Russia. Despite those two nations' many and varied issues, these would still be near-peer conflicts, and it's not like we don't have problems of our own. But the role of government is to protect the liberty and property of the people, and our armed forces are the primary players in that task.
To do that, we need equipment.
In an online discussion about the paper, former F-16 pilot and Mitchell Institute director of research Heather Penney warned that past U.S. wars such as Korea and Vietnam, and Ukraine’s current war against Russia’s invasion, have showed that militaries who can’t or won’t hit enemy bases and other sanctuaries from the air risk falling into grueling wars of attrition, akin to trench warfare.
And without a significantly boosted combat fleet able to project long-range air power in force, Penney said, the United States could find itself in a similar danger against China.
“China is deliberately building the capabilities and the posture to effectively make the entire western Pacific their sanctuary,” Penney said. “But we know from history that allowing an adversary that kind of sanctuary allows them to win, and it’s a recipe for our own defeat.”
We do have allies in the Pacific - Japan, Taiwan, and Australia - but in any conflict with China, it will be the United States that does the heavy lifting.
Read More: US Air Force's New B-21 Reportedly Has the Radar Profile of an Insect
New American F-47 Fighter Deployment Lagging Behind Chinese Counterparts
Here's the thing: While the United States' history has always been 1) gain unchallenged air dominance, 2) send in troops, 3) un-alive bad guys, there's more to this than just building airplanes. We also have to build all the infrastructure to use them: Fuel, munitions, ground crews, bases, food and water for the crews, tankers, all of the various materials and doodads that keep a modern military running.
One thing about warfare, after all, that has not changed since Roman legions marched into Gaul: The side that can keep its soldiers best-fed and best-equipped is the side that wins. Always.
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