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The 2024 Election: A Post-Mortem. What Went Wrong? What Went Right?

AP Photo/Evan Vucci

Wow, what a night!

After surrendering to exhaustion at about 11 p.m. Alaska time, I signed off and returned to the house to find my wife and my in-laws, who are visiting, still up and watching Trump's victory speech. I walked in, pointed at the TV screen where Trump was speaking, and said, "Look at that. That is the face of a man redeemed." 

It was a great evening, hanging out with my RedState colleagues and all of our wonderful readers - and thanks, to all of you who stuck with us to the end. Y'all are the best.

As for the results? I'll let James Brown say it for me:

 As of this writing, Arizona has not yet been called, but it's looking like it will go for Donald Trump and JD Vance as well - and even if, by some chance, it doesn't, Team Trump has still won, and on January, 6th Donald Trump will walk back into the White House.

So, let's engage some of that vaunted 20-20 hindsight. What went wrong, and what went right? 

Well, there's a great argument to be made that this was the moment that changed everything.


See Related: The Attempt on Donald Trump: A Date Which Will Live in Infamy


On that date, I noted:

History was made today. This instance was a loathsome instance of political violence, the attempted assassination of a former President of the United States of America. History turns on such events, and history will certainly turn on this one. Former President Donald Trump was made a target; the assassin failed and, in the doing, gave us one of the most vivid images of defiance I've ever seen.

The assassin, who has not yet been identified, no doubt intended to make Donald Trump a martyr. Instead, he has very likely made him the 47th President of the United States.

That incident gave us the most powerful political image since Reagan at the Brandenburg Gate

But now, looking back on that event, while I stand by everything I wrote on that day, I'm thinking on this early, chilly Alaska November morning that Donald Trump would have won even had that not happened. Here's why.

First: Donald Trump is above all a marketing guy. He has, throughout his career, sold a product, a brand, really. That brand is Trump. Note how he always refers to himself and his efforts and campaigns in that way: "Trump." T'was always thus, even back in the '80s when he was just a New York real estate guy and a Democrat. He's good at it, too. While he can be undisciplined at times, he's generally consistent in his positions and he knows how to interact with people. What's more, if you watch him at a time like the famous McDonald's stunt, he likes people. Yes, the McDonald's thing was a stunt, but it was a good one, and the former and future president was enjoying himself. 

Kamala Harris, on the other hand, doesn't seem to like people all that much. She was raised in a leftist bubble by a Marxist father and an academic mother, and she never learned what used to be called "the common touch." On the campaign trail, that was painfully obvious.

Second: The campaign could not have been more starkly different. It wasn't just the McDonald's gig, the garbage-truck stunt, or even the response to the assassination attempt. It was the contrast itself that made the difference. Kamala Harris ran a perfectly awful campaign and it's easy enough to see why: She's never faced a serious opponent before. Her career up to that point was in California, a single-party state. Her first attempt at a campaign where she faced serious challengers was when she made her aborted (hah) run for president in 2020, which crashed and burned when former Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard - now a Republican - metaphorically carved out Kamala's gizzard and set it on fire. She was selected to be Joe Biden's running mate because he had painted himself into a corner by promising his running mate would be a "woman of color," and the only other option was Stacey Abrams. After her anointment, Kamala Harris then went on to choose as her running mate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, a hoptoad-eyed non-entity from a state that she was sure to carry in the general. If she had picked Josh Shapiro, to name one, we may be looking at very different results this morning. 

Donald Trump, on the other hand, had already run two campaigns, winning the first one and losing the second by a few thousand votes. His running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, is not only appealing, but he's smart as a whip, with a lovely family and a compelling background story. For every time Harris said "I" Trump replied with "We," and people believed him. I believed him. And, at current count, almost 72 million Americans believe him, and what's more, they believe in him.

Third, the interactions. Kamala Harris is just no good at handling anything that isn't pre-screened and carefully scripted. She did a few "interviews" with pre-planned softball questions, and on the few occasions she had to speak extemporaneously, she was awful - earning her the title "Queen of Word Salads." Trump, on the other hand, is not only glib and personable, but he can go on at length in a free-wheeling discussion. His three hours with Joe Rogan was a triumph, resulting in Rogan endorsing him for president - something Joe Rogan has never done before. And that triumph was followed by another three-hour session with JD Vance, likewise a triumph; meanwhile, Tim Walz was struggling to load a shotgun he claims to have "shot a lot of trap with."

Fourth and finally, plenty of Democrats and independents were not pleased by the way Kamala was just foisted on them after befuddled old Joe was forced to the sidelines. The proper response to that should have been an open convention, which until not all that long ago was how candidates were decided upon, but they didn't even do that. The result? The weakest Democrat candidate since Andrew Johnson. Came Election Day, and Kamala was beaten like the red-headed stepchild of a rented mule, and as of this writing, Donald Trump is pulling off something no Republican has done in 20 years - leading in the overall vote count. And it's not close, either - Trump has a nearly five million vote lead.

That's mandate territory, folks. And after four years of lawfare, after four years of being called a fascist, a Nazi, a would-be dictator, after a bitter campaign with the legacy media and Democrats (but I repeat myself) hammering him on everything from his rhetoric to his choice of neckties, Donald Trump has arisen like a phoenix and won - and he won bigly. And he changes the game in many ways, making inroads into traditionally Democrat demographics that have a lot of people shaking their heads.


See Related: The Democrats Lose Another Gen Z Voter - a 2020 and 2024 DNC Delegate, No Less


As I said - he is today, a man redeemed.

The Democrats will still try everything that they can to sabotage him. They will throw everything they can at him. But Trump, I suspect, will be tough enough to take it. And it looks like this time he is determined to put together a team, a team that doesn't include a bunch of establishment insiders. The next four years look to be very interesting indeed.


See Related: Raskin's Shocking Comments to Bill Maher About 2024 Election Results Are Raising Eyebrows


What's more, Donald Trump seems to have had some pretty long and broad coattails. As of this writing the GOP looks to be picking up three Senate seats, and they have better than even odds of keeping the House. In Texas, Sen. Ted Cruz, who was targeted in particular by Democrats, coasted to an easy win. A bunch of races remain to be called, including the Great Land's at-large House seat, although Nick Begich is in a pretty good position at the moment - and best of all, if current trends continue, ranked-choice voting will be a thing of the past in Alaska, even as it went down to defeat in Colorado.

As for where Kamala Harris goes from here? I'll let Ray Charles address that question:

 There are still some decisions outstanding. But it's looking like a great day. America is back, folks. I have a funny feeling the Trump team, hopefully after sleeping late today, are going to be busy drafting executive orders for a Day One correction of Joe Biden's EOs - and I sure hope the GOP House and Senate members will be busy drafting legislation. As I keep saying, when the new Congress is seated in January, the Speaker should be required only to slam down the gavel and yell "GO!"

Tuesday was a great day. Last night was the most fun I've had watching an election, probably since 1984. I hope the Trump team got a restful night. Because, now it's time to get to work, and to the President-Elect and his team, I can only say this: We are all counting on you. Do what you said you'd do. Stay the course. We did our part - now it's your turn.

And, finally, I feel compelled to say this: Welcome back, America.

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