My first election where I was old enough to vote was the election of 1980, and if you are of a like age to me, you remember what was at stake that year. We had suffered through four years of the inept James Earl Carter Jr. bumbling through economic and monetary policy, overseeing double-digit inflation and double-digit interest rates, along with the humiliation of having our Iranian embassy staff held hostage for months. The only amusing part of the entire Carter administration was Jimmy's ne'er-do-well brother Billy hawking "Billy Beer" on television.
But that summer, we were treated to a new kind of politician, one most of us outside of California weren't that familiar with. His name was Ronald Reagan; he brought a sunny optimism and an infectious grin, along with a big dose of determination, to the nation at a time when we sorely needed it. Come November of 1980, the 19-year-old me marched into the local elementary school gym where the voting booths were set up. I cast my vote for Ronald Reagan and Republicans down-ticket — one of whom was a young guy named Chuck Grassley, who was making his first run for the Senate. I never looked back.
Abraham Lincoln reportedly said:
America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves.
This is correct, and never more so in this year of 2024. We face a choice this year that is as stark as we faced in 1980; perhaps more so. We cannot afford to falter; not this year, not ever.
The 2024 presidential race remains a tight one. In the battleground states, where this race will likely be decided, former President Donald Trump holds a narrow lead over the inept and incompetent Kamala Harris; it's hard to credit, but that's where things seem to be. The RealClearPolitics averages have Donald Trump leading in four of the seven battlegrounds, and not by big margins:
- Arizona: Trump +2.1
- Nevada: Harris +1.1
- Wisconsin: Harris +0.6
- Michigan: Harris +1.4
- Pennsylvania: Trump +0.2
- North Carolina: Trump +0.7
- Georgia: Trump +1.5
I'm a tad skeptical about these numbers, even though the RCP averages do tend to attenuate the statistical noise. I think the polling right now underestimates Trump's support, as it did in 2016 and 2020 — but that is speculation on my part, and my personal speculation is worth every penny you paid for it. But this is the best data we have to go on right now.
What does this tell us? Turn out, one and all. Like most elections, turnout will be key to this election, and getting out their vote has, historically, been something Democrats are very good at. We need to beat them this year. We have to turn out and vote beyond any margin of doubt, beyond any margin of fraud, beyond any sane question.
If your neighbor needs a ride in to go vote, give them a ride. If your neighbors aren't sure whether or not to vote, persuade them — unless they are Democrats, in which case, let them alone. If a family member isn't sure of how to vote, advise them. If a young person isn't well-informed as to the issues and wants advice, advise them. If someone you know presents an opinion based on faulty logic or falsehoods, advise them.
Turn out. Come out of the woods of Maine and Vermont, and vote. Turn out. Come down from the mountains of Tennessee and Kentucky, of Idaho and Wyoming, and vote. Turn out. Come out of the deserts of Nevada and Arizona, and vote. Turn out. Come forth from the plains of west Texas, of the piney woods of east Texas, and vote. Turn out. Come out of the lowlands of South Carolina and the hills of Georgia, and vote. Turn out. Come out of the fields and pastures of Iowa and Nebraska, of Kansas and Oklahoma, and vote. Turn out. Come out of the great north woods of northern Minnesota, the high plains and badlands of the Dakotas, and vote. Come out of the city neighborhoods of New York, of California, of Illinois, of Michigan, and vote. Turn out. Move onto the highways and byways of the nation, the side roads, the dirt roads, to wherever you need to go to cast your ballot, no matter what the weather, no matter how hot or cold, no matter if it's raining, snowing or sleeting, and vote.
Turn out. Turn out. Turn out.
And here in the Great Land, on that morning, my wife and I will go to our little local community center, where we will present our ID, sign the register, and cast our votes. We are urging our friends and neighbors here in the valley to do likewise.
Turn out. Turn out. Turn out.
There is an old saw in American political discourse that describes the three boxes available to the American voters. Here I stand, on the first — my soapbox — urging you to go forth and take advantage of the second one: the ballot box. We also know what the third box is — and we don't want to resort to it. We just don't. Not this year, not ever. So go, then, and vote. Vote as though the survival of the republic depends on it; vote as though the future of America as we know it is at stake.
Because it is.
Go vote.
