Bloomberg: Trump Leads Biden in Every Swing State - But Will Biden Be the Candidate?

On Tuesday, the Bloomberg folks released a series of swing state polls, and the numbers were, let us say, interesting. If I were working on the Joe Biden re-election campaign — which I wouldn't be, as I have a functional brain — these numbers would have me sweating bullets.

But here's the problem with the polls: They presume Biden will be the Dem's nominee. My colleague Nick Arama points out that the Biden administration's sudden focus on the border is likely due to the current polling — and that's really likely. Still, it's also really likely that old Joe won't be the Democrat contender. That's something these polls don't take into account.

Here are some of the results:

Arizona: Trump v. Biden, Trump +3
Georgia: Trump v. Biden, Trump +8
Michigan: Trump v. Biden, Trump +5
Nevada: Trump v. Biden, Trump +8
North Carolina: Trump v. Biden, Trump +10
Pennsylvania: Trump v. Biden, Trump +3
Wisconsin: Trump v. Biden, Trump +5

In a series of three and four-way matchups, Trump still comes out ahead in these states.

For anyone who might be wondering, Bloomberg presents the polling methodology:

Methodology: This Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey, which identifies key issues in the 2024 election and measures how much voters trust Biden vs. Trump on these issues and how Biden vs. Trump perform on a ballot in swing states, was conducted from January 16 - 22, 2024, among a sample of 4956 registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The interviews were conducted online, and the data were weighted to approximate a target sample of swing state registered voters based on gender, age, race, marital status, home ownership, 2020 Presidential vote and state. Results from the full survey have a margin of error of +/-1 percentage point(s).

Now, I have some reservations.

The poll surveyed only registered voters, not likely voters. It's unclear why, although pollsters tend to go more towards the latter later in the election cycle; but likely voters tend to give more accurate numbers.
They surveyed 4,956 voters in seven states — that's only 708 registered voters per state. I'm no statistician, but that seems a bit thin to me.
In presidential election years, a significant number of voters don't really start paying attention until after Labor Day. Polling done after that date will be more interesting — and likely to tighten up some.
This is the big one: All such polls are operating on the presumption that Joe Biden will be the Democrat candidate. This is the big wild card in this election; nominating Joe Biden for a second term will be the kiss of death for the Dems' 2024 White House hopes, and they know it. Joe Biden's failure grows more and more obvious day by day; he is slipping his clutches, mentally and physically, and it's beginning to look like he may not make it to November, much less through another term. And nobody in the ranks of Democrats wants Kamala Harris as the replacement. Something dramatic will have to happen between now and November, likely at the Democratic National Convention.

You can see the entire poll here.

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If these numbers are part of a trend — I'm a little skeptical about that — then despite all his legal problems, despite all the hammering from the biased legacy media, despite his missteps and lack of communications discipline, it could be that Donald Trump might win another term. Back in the spring of 2016, when Trump was pulling ahead in the primaries, I remember the late Dr. Charles Krauthammer saying about Trump that "...at first I thought he was just a joke candidate, that he would drop out once he got some publicity. But now it's looking like he might pull this off."

It's still early, but Trump can pull this off again. The Trump team should be aware of one thing, though; these numbers, should they prove prescient, are likely due as much (or more) to President Biden's weakness than any particular strength of Trump. And this is the key point: They should be aware of the likelihood that Joe Biden will somehow be removed from the ticket, along with his stand-in, and someone else will be the opponent. If Trump's folks have their wits about them, they should be evaluating all of those possibilities, from Michelle Obama to Hillary Clinton to Gavin Newsom, and war-gaming how to run against each.

It's still a long way to November. It's a safe assumption that things will bounce back and forth a lot before the election. It's going to be a long, hot summer.

This seems appropriate.