Alaska is in a bit of a political pickle at the moment, being a red state whose sole House of Representatives member is a Democrat, that being Mary Peltola. The vagaries of the recently-imposed ranked-choice voting scheme are in large part responsible for this predicament. But the scion of an old Alaska (Democrat) political family, the conservative Republican Nick Begich III, is once more in the race to unseat Mrs. Peltola. While Mr. Begich is polling a strong second, he nevertheless has some significant challenges.

New polling data obtained by Must Read Alaska shows Nick Begich has gained four points and Rep. Mary Peltola has lost 7 points among likely voters since the 2022 General Election. Both are running for Congress in 2024 in what is still an uncrowded field.

Begich, who got 24% of the first-ballot vote in the 2022 General Election, has inched up in the last year and now polls at 28% with likely voters. 

Peltola, who got 49% of the first ballot in the ranked-choice election in 2022, has seen her approval slide to 42% since she took office.

Mr. Begich announced his 2024 run in August 2023.

The problem, of course, is Alaska's ranked-choice voting scheme, which arguably placed Mrs. Peltola in Alaska's sole House seat to begin with. Were Alaska still on its original closed-primary, traditional general election system, the GOP ticket would not have had two major contenders -- Mr. Begich and former Republican vice presidential nominee, Sarah Palin -- and things may well have turned out differently. Mrs. Peltola also pulled off a coup by gaining the support of another member of an old Alaskan political family, that being Senator Lisa Murkowski, who was up for re-election in 2020 and who was successful in that race, again very likely as the ranked-choice voting system allowed her to fend off a challenge from the right in the form of Kelly Tshibaka.

Note: Sarah Palin has not announced any further candidacy, so for the time being, Mr. Begich need not deal with that.

Thus, we Alaskans are in the situation we are in now: a red state whose Congressional delegation consists of a Democrat (Mary Peltola) a Republican (Senator Dan Sullivan), and Murkowski.

Fortunately for Mr. Begich, Mary Peltola seems to have hitched her wagon to the Biden Administration, and that's costing her some support back here in the Great Land.

The news is good for Begich, as nearly 70% of Alaska Primary voters believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, the poll shows. Peltola has tied her fortunes to President Biden, and hardliners like Rep. Nancy Pelosi, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, and socialist Rep. Pramila Jayapal. Peltola votes in line with President Biden 96% of the time.

Were I advising Nick Begich III, I would tell him, "No more Mr. Nice Guy. Go after Mary Peltola now. Hit her hard, hit her fast, keep hitting her, never give her a chance to catch her breath. Start now. Hit the Anchorage and Juneau media markets and the North Slope boroughs where her support is strongest, especially the latter, where the Biden Administration's energy policies are costing Alaskan jobs. Start now. Don't wait for nice weather. Travel the state, and make your case. Work, work, work. Burn that shoe leather, shake hands, meet Alaskans, every day, and talk to them."

Up around Delta Junction, Alaska has a pretty good-sized herd of wood bison. Bison are unique in many ways, one of which is their heavy winter coat of thick, matted hair that covers their head and shoulders. Whereas their relatives, domestic cattle, tend to drift with the wind in a winter storm, bison instead face the storm, lower their heads to take the blasts of wind and snow, and forge directly into the blizzard -- and come out sooner on the other side. Mr. Begich would do well to study the survival tactics of our Alaskan bison and emulate them.