Joe Biden isn't looking like he's up for another presidential race, much less another term, but it's already too late for opposing Democrats to file for the ballots in several states' primary elections. As of this writing (Saturday, December 16th), filing deadlines have already passed in Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, California, Texas, and North Carolina. Ohio's deadline is December 20th. 

The clock is ticking, and as of this moment, there haven't arisen any serious primary challengers (Dean Phillips, so far, is barely even showing up in the polls, and the less said about Marianne Williamson, the better) to old Joe, at least since Robert F. Kennedy Jr. decided to run as an independent. So, unless President Biden is tossed out or resigns, or hands off the candidacy at the convention, he's looking like he'll be the candidate.

On the GOP side, the several candidates remaining face no similar primary challenges; the remaining field, if one had to guess, is in it until at least Super Tuesday, when a front-runner typically emerges.

Since we're looking at the calendar, I present again my standard caveat: Polls are unreliable; not one primary vote has yet been cast. 

So let's have a look at the parties.

The Democrats

Joe Biden is in trouble. Not since Woodrow Wilson have we had a President so clearly and obviously impaired. Add in the stress that Hunter's legal troubles are causing, and you have a President who, in a sane world, would be resigning either for "health reasons" or "to spend more time with his family," both terms being codewords for "I'm not going down with this sinking ship!" And, given some of Joe Biden's recent appearances, that ship is sinking fast.

But we no longer live in a sane world, it seems. Joe Biden faces two obstacles in this obvious course of action; one being his life insurance policy, Kamala Harris, who nobody wants to see in the Oval Office, and the other being Jill Biden, who appears to enjoy the trappings of power.

The only option the Democrats have to salvage anything from this mess is to get Joe Biden and Kamala Harris both step away. Prediction: The Dems will exert pressure to have Joe hand the candidacy off at the convention.

The Republicans

My caveat, again: Polls are unreliable; not one primary vote has yet been cast. 

But with that said (again), the primary season is pretty close at hand, and what polls there are on the GOP nomination are predicting a blowout. When looking at polling, it's a good practice to examine the useful Real Clear Politics average, as that eliminates a lot of the noise and outliers; that average, for the GOP nomination, has Donald Trump with a seemingly insurmountable lead of 61 percent of the primary vote, leading the second-place candidate, Ron DeSantis, by 48.6 percent. And the momentum seems to be going Trump's way.

However seriously we take polling, the anti-Trump forces seem to be taking them seriously, as the freaking out is becoming more strident by the day. Trump, to be sure, still faces serious legal problems, but he seems to be Obi-Wan Kenobi'ing the primary; his polling numbers seem to be rising with every new case filed.

In 2024, like in 2016 and 2020, Donald Trump just seems to defy all of the rules we normally expect to see political campaigns follow. I've been watching political campaigns, like a lot of guys watch the various sportsball events, since the late '70s--and I've never seen anything like it.

Ron DeSantis, however, is still doggedly in the race. He's hit Iowa hard, that state being the first to enter the nominating contest; the Florida Governor has visited all 99 counties in that state. And Nikki Haley is still... trying.

As we head into the primaries, the GOP really only has three candidates: Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, and Nikki Haley. Prediction: as with most POTUS election years, things will be decided by Super Tuesday.

The Contest

Let's assume, for just a moment (you know what happens when you assume, but we'll do it anyway) that the final boss fight in this game ends up being a rematch of 2020, with Donald Trump in one corner, in the gold trunks, and Joe Biden in the other, in Depends. At the moment the betting odds and the polling favors a Trump victory in that matchup. Smart money says that Joe Biden won't be the eventual Democrat nominee. 

Smart money also says it won't be Kamala Harris, and Gavin Newsom, given California's woes under this administration, would likewise be a losing choice. At this point, the Dems' best option would be to pull someone out of left field (play on words intended), say, someone who could appeal to a broader audience than the usual progressive suspects.

Personally, I trust the betting odds over the polling. Your mileage may vary.

Caveats: Things Can Yet Change

The fat lady, as the saying goes, hasn't yet sung, but she's warming up in the wings.

In about a month, the primary season starts, and every assumption (there's that word again) we've made to date may well be knocked into a cocked hat. Ron DeSantis could pull off a staggering upset. Donald Trump could suddenly change his mind and withdraw from the race. Joe Biden could resign and hand the Oval Office to Kamala Harris, who will then resign and hand the Presidency to Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, making him the presumptive 2024 nominee. 

Everything at this point, is, of course, informed opinion bolstered by guesswork. But one thing is for sure and for certain; 2024 is going to be a very interesting year indeed, very possibly in the "ancient Chinese curse" sense. 

One thing is known: All of us here at RedState will continue to keep you all informed. Through caucuses and primaries, through legal cases and lawsuits, through Super Tuesday and beyond, and on to the election and its aftermath, we'll be here. Stay tuned!