The Republican majority in the U.S. House of Representatives can use all the bolstering it can get these days. Its already-narrow advantage (218 to 213) shrinks every time a member resigns to take positions in the Trump administration, the thought being that most leaving were from relatively "safe" districts. Presumably, the GOP would easily retain these seats, but there are signs emerging that it might not be that simple.
One looming special election is to replace Mike Waltz, now national security advisor to President Trump, in Florida's Sixth Congressional District (FL-6). Republican Randy Fine "waltzed" into the nomination after having received the president's endorsement during the primary, although recent reports show Fine is losing the fundraising race as his Democrat opponent, Josh Weil, brings in the big bucks.
The disparity is pretty stark, as reported by Punchbowl News's Jake Sherman.
Just a massively stunning cash disparity in FL-6, where there will be a special next week to replace @michaelgwaltz.
— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) March 24, 2025
Democrat Josh Weil raised $9M and has $1.2M on hand.
Republican Randy Fine raised $987,759 and has $92,693 on hand.
This is a district Waltz and Trump won by…
Other sources are saying that it's more like $10 million raised by Weil, but both numbers dwarf the $1.2 million brought in by Fine thus far. And, as Sherman notes, this is in a district that Trump won by 30 percent less than six months ago.
We know, however, that big bucks don't guarantee electoral wins. Just look at Kamala Harris, who is estimated to have raked in north of $1 billion during her three-month campaign, as opposed to Donald Trump, who raised just under $500 million. As a reminder, Trump won 312 electoral votes compared to Harris's 226 -- so much for the infamous "blue wall"!
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There isn't any public polling available for this special election, so it's difficult to tell if Weil's haul is translating into actual votes. But, there is some early voting data we got ahold of that suggests Republicans are off to slow start, despite the big push for early voting in 2024. All numbers are as of 12:30 p.m. ET on March 24.
- In Flagler County, which is heavily R, Republicans are currently at 5,031 and Democrats are at 4,668.
- In Volusia County, Republicans clock in at 8,017 to the D's 8,938.
- In St. Johns County, Rs have 1,092 to Ds 1,235.
Here are the approximate early voting totals so far:
Republican: 14,140
Democrat: 14,841
For those keeping score at home, the Democrats are currently outpacing the GOP in both fundraising and early voting turnout in FL-6.
Now, we could just be looking at conservatives returning to their preference for same-day voting, or, worryingly, the turnout thus far could indicate the Democrat Party's desperation for an electoral win is paying off with supporters banking their votes early.
As RedState has been reporting, Democrats and their preferred billionaires are pouring gobs of money into another election taking place next week, the state supreme court race in Wisconsin. They need a win there to stop the twin downward spirals of the party and its so-called leaders, so the Wisconsin race is taking on outsized importance. A PAC supported by Elon Musk is not only sending money to the conservative candidate, it also came up with game plan for Republicans to win now that Donald Trump is no longer drawing in voters by being on the ballot, and it all hinges on this: become Donald Trump.
That's the good news for FL-6. Republican Randy Fine was endorsed by President Trump early on in the race, and, in turn, Fine pledged his support to the president.
“God saved his life so that he could save the world,” Fine said, referring to the president-elect on the Dec. 13 edition of WNZF’s Free For All Fridays, “and since he says he needs my help to make that happen, then that’s what I’m going to do.”
Early voting for the FL-6 special election began on March 22 and continues through March 29; same-day voting takes place on April 1. RedState, of course, will bring you full coverage of the results.
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