President Trump used the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, to announce on Tuesday that he will permit Ukraine to manufacture the Patriot anti-missile system under license.
Transcript
TRUMP: But one of the things I think we're going to be talking about today, I just a little birdie told me this uh about the fact that we'll give them the right to make Patriots. We'll show them how to do it. It's very complex, actually. But it's, uh, you'll figure out the complexity quickly.
And we're talking about that, and we'll the company that makes them, which is building now four plants, you know, all of our companies will be able to do this in 2 to 3 months. If you order a Patriot now you have to wait a long time for them. Same thing with Tomahawks. We have a lot of certain equipment. But with the they call it the elite equipment. And you don't need elite equipment necessarily for a war, but uh so one of the things we're going to be talking about is you'll uh we're going to give a license to you to make Patriots. This is really cool, right?
ZELENSKY: Right.
TRUMP: This way you can't complain that we're not giving them enough. I said, "Make them yourself."
Uh we haven't informed the company of that yet, but that'll that'll work out all right, you know. So, they'll be thrilled. But, you know, they'll be able to do it. You'll be able to figure that out. Most most countries couldn't do that. If I said that to most countries, they wouldn't know what I'm talking about.
But, this is a very ingenious group. And what I like about that is a defensive it's a defensive situation as opposed to an offensive. But, I think one of the things you might want to be talking about is that.
That's what I heard. Little birdie told me that.
This comes as Russia has launched a barrage of ballistic missiles against Ukrainian population centers. Since July 1, over 60 ballistic missiles have been fired at Ukraine, including 29 on the night of July 6. The usual sky-high standard of excellence set by Ukrainian missile and drone defenses came up short because of a shortage of Patriot missiles.
Ukraine was unable to intercept any of the 23 Russian ballistic missiles that crashed into the Kyiv area in the early hours of Monday. Russia’s nearly unimpeded strikes are the consequence of a global dearth of interceptors for the U.S.-made Patriot antimissile system, a shortage compounded by this year’s U.S.-led war with Iran.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to ask Western countries to send more of their own scarce supply of interceptors when he attends the North Atlantic Treaty Organization summit in Ankara this week.
Zelensky called on the U.S. to give higher priority to Ukraine’s urgent missile-defense needs. “Missiles for Patriots are a priority, and, of course, we understand that the political will of the United States would certainly be enough to make up for the Patriot shortage, but so far, there is not enough of that support,” he said on Sunday evening, hours before Russia’s latest barrage.
BACKGROUND
The U.S. began shipping Patriot missiles to Ukraine in 2023 after the Biden administration took a break from being mesmerized by Vladimir Putin's imitation of Cleavon Little escaping the mob in "Blazing Saddles;" see Putin's War, Week 42. Ukraine Gets the Nod to Strike Targets in Russia and Some Tools to Do It With – RedState,.Zelensky has been asking for permission to manufacture the Patriot under license since June 2026.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made the case for the license in an interview with Face the Nation, stating that the US lacks sufficient anti-ballistic missile production capacity, while Russia has been ramping up domestic ballistic missile production.
“I sent a letter to the White House and to the U.S. Congress. I hope they will understand and respond,” the President stated, adding that the slow production could lead to a crisis in different parts of the world.
“60–65 anti-ballistic missiles per month, compared to current challenges, is nothing. It is no secret, and Russia knows this. We need to expand the production. I asked the previous U.S. administration, and I am asking today’s administration to give Ukraine licenses to produce Patriot missiles,” Zelenskyy said rather emphatically. “We can increase the production of Patriot missiles. This will help us. This will help the Middle East and any other country that the United States decides to help. Until we produce a European anti-ballistic system, we will need support from the United States,” he added.
Some of Ukraine's missile shortage, in my opinion, was due to a policy of slow-walking requests. The whole "pivot to China" school of thought that fundamentally ignored U.S. security interests in the rest of the world in favor of focusing on China, along with a handful of Russian simps, drove that. There was also a fear that supplying Ukraine with necessary ballistic missile defenses would degrade U.S. capabilities. Since the end of the Cold War, we've let our defense industrial base degrade to criminal levels of production. When Operation Epic Fury started, we had about 2,500 Patriot missiles in our inventory. We fired between 1,060 and 1,430 Patriots during the hostilities, according to a report published by the think tank, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Our national production rate was about 60 missiles per month.
Strategically Significant
Granting a Patriot license to Ukraine would greatly strengthen Ukraine's defenses and its standing within Europe. The only other nation in Europe that produces Patriots from scratch is Germany. Politically, it lets Trump disengage from an area of the world that is considered something of a strategic null set and focus on the Western Pacific.
Economically Sound
The licensing arrangement turns that portion of Ukrainian defense from a cost center into a profit center. Rather than being a drain on our defense resources, if the deal is structured like the German one, the U.S. (and by that I mean Raytheon) gets revenue from licensing fees, component sales, and training. It also expands the market for the Patriot missile, which has been plagued by long lag times between orders and deliveries.
Challenges
The challenge, of course, is turning a document into something that shoots down ballistic missiles. You're going to see a lot written about how this doesn't amount to much for at least three, maybe five, years. I disagree. First, Ukraine has a fairly sophisticated missile industry that domestically produces everything from the missile body to the guidance system. Ukrainian missiles aren't the Patriot, but they demonstrate the capability to do the job.
The German defense behemoth Rheinmetall produces Germany's Patriots. Rheinmetall and Ukraine have a close working relationship. They currently operate a tank repair facility and a tank factory as joint ventures (see Putin's War, Week 64. Patriots Score Big and the Scene Is Set for Offensive Action – RedState and Putin's War, Week 78. Prigozhin Crashes, Two Russian Bomber Bases and Moscow Hit by Drones – RedState). Ukrainian technicians could begin training at the German Patriot facility in short order, and Rheinmetall could collaborate with Ukraine to build a Patriot factory there. In the short run, Ukraine and Germany could share the German facility and share the output.
Change in Tone
What was most notable about today's announcement was the changed chemistry between Trump and Zelensky. Of course, after the disastrous first meeting between the two leaders (BREAKING: After Fiery Oval Office Exchange, Trump Sends Zelensky Packing – RedState), anything would be a marked improvement. Both men were at ease. Trump was jovial, and Zelensky looked like a man who had just won big and was barely holding in the news.
Bottom Line
Granting Ukraine a license to manufacture Patriot missiles is a win for everyone but Russia. The U.S. gets to fulfill its obligation to Ukraine in a way that doesn't sacrifice our own readiness. Ukraine gets the tech transfer and inevitably export contracts. Europe gets another defense partner. Ukraine's case for joining the EU and NATO is strengthened. Most of all, Trump gets this particular monkey off his back.
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