Federal managers are alerting their employees that a government-wide reduction-in-force is possible when the "buy out" offered by President Trump expires on Thursday; see Art of the Deal: Trump Admin. Offers Buyouts to 2 Million Federal Employees – RedState.

The assistant commissioner of a division of the General Services Administration told staff early this week that layoffs across the federal government are “likely” after the deferred resignation offer expires Thursday, according to an email obtained by The Washington Post — the sharpest move yet toward forcibly removing many of the 2.3 million civilian federal employees.

Two agencies are looking at major hits. The government's personnel agency, the Office of Personnel Management, has been directed to prepare for a 70 percent reduction in programs and headcount. The General Services Administration, the government's landlord and logistics agency, is looking at a 50 percent reduction in activities, personnel, and contracts. Even though over 20,000 federal employees have taken the buyout offer, that is far short of the reduction envisioned by the Trump administration.

Reducing the federal workforce, along with moving 100,000 federal workers out of the DC area, was a key Trump campaign promise. Initiating legally defensible RIFs is not a casual activity. "federal law requires RIFs be rooted in certain activities, such as a reorganization, lack of work or a shortage of funds."  Some of Trump's executive orders seem aimed at documenting a "lack of work" by removing activities agencies were involved in. The order to agencies to identify Congressionally mandated activities also appears to be laying the groundwork for a RIF.

One key component of the RIF plan seems to be the wholesale firing of all probationary employees, called "career conditional." The EPA may shed as many as 1,100 such employees. This has the virtue of not only getting rid of staff without civil service protection but also those hired in the last two years of Biden's reign.

Any large-scale RIF is going to be met with court challenges, but in the long run, it will be very difficult for any court to require the reinstatement of workers whose jobs have been eliminated in the face of a determined president.