GOP Rebounds In Generic Ballot

Just a month ago the left and their allies were all happy-dance over a CNN generic ballot poll that showed the Democrats kicking ass in 2018:

Democrats are leading by 18 points on a generic 2018 midterm ballot, according to new survey data from CNN.

According to the poll, 56 percent of respondents said they are most likely to vote Democrat in the midterm elections, while just 38 percent said they were likely to vote Republican.

The numbers are dramatically different than last midterm election, when Democrats still controlled the White House. When the same question was asked in November 2013, 47 percent said they’d vote Democrat, while 49 percent said Republican.


Now a new one is out and those folks are no longer celebrating:

As the midterm election year begins, a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS finds the Democratic advantage on a generic congressional ballot has tightened to a narrow 5 points among registered voters, but those voters who say they are most enthusiastic about turning out to vote this fall favor Democrats by a wide 15-point margin.

The new poll’s 49% Democrat to 44% Republican margin among registered voters is almost identical to Democrats’ standing in January of 2006, the last midterm election year in which they made significant gains in the House of Representatives.

There is a lot of whistling past the graveyard in this cheerleading by CNN. You don’t drop nine points in a month and have a creditable claim that momentum is going your way. And two other polls show the same shift.

I’m a skeptic of what, if anything, this particular poll, at this stage of the cycle, means beyond providing fodder for people who are into poll idolatry. The numbers themselves are simply too volatile to be considered valid. Did the tax bill, a bill that was shamelessly demagogued by Democrats and by the news media, really account for a nine point shift in party preference? I really doubt it.


Still, I’d rather see the trend running this way than the other.


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