Californians have lived with the consequences of bad energy policy for years. Those consequences are now visible in real infrastructure, real supply constraints, and real risk. And they are showing up in one place more than anywhere else.
California’s 66th Assembly District (AD-66).
AD-66 is home to Chevron’s El Segundo refinery and PBF Energy’s Torrance refinery. And until the end of last year, it was also home to Phillips 66’s Los Angeles refinery, which has now stopped producing transportation fuel entirely. Three major refineries in one Assembly district. One is already offline. Two remain, operating under growing regulatory and economic pressure.
That did not happen by chance.
Over the last four decades, California has steadily reduced its in-state refining footprint through a mix of regulatory pressure, capital flight, and policy uncertainty. In the early 1980s, California had more than 40 operating refineries. Today, it effectively has nine refineries producing transportation fuel at scale.
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As facilities closed, capacity did not disappear evenly. It compressed into fewer locations, fewer districts, and fewer communities. AD-66 is where that compression landed.
A System With No Slack
With so few refineries supplying gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel for nearly forty million residents, the nation’s largest port complex, major agricultural regions, and a logistics network that supports the broader U.S. economy, the system has no margin for error.
When a refinery goes offline, there is no excess capacity waiting in reserve. The system does not rebalance. It tightens.
According to data from the California Department of Tax and Fee Administration and the Energy Commission, Californians consumed approximately 36.2 million gallons of gasoline per day in 2024.
Chevron’s El Segundo refinery supplies roughly 20% of that total, or about 7.24 million gallons per day. It also supplies about 40% of jet fuel for Southern California airports and military installations. PBF Energy’s Torrance refinery produces about 1.8 billion gallons of gasoline per year, which works out to about 4.93 million gallons per day.
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Until December 2025, the Phillips 66 Los Angeles refinery produced approximately 3.57 million gallons of gasoline per day, along with another 2.73 million gallons per day of diesel and jet fuel.
Taken together, AD-66 produced an estimated 15.7 million gallons of gasoline per day until Phillips shut down. That amounted to over 43% of California’s total gasoline supply.
Even after that closure, AD-66 still accounts for approximately 33% of the state’s gasoline production.
The Next Shock Is Already Scheduled
The system grows even more fragile with the looming idling of Valero’s Benicia refinery in Northern California.
Based on California Energy Commission estimates, Benicia can produce roughly 3.7 million gallons of gasoline per day, or about 10% of statewide demand. If that facility goes offline, Northern California will lose a critical supply node overnight.
Moreover, Travis Air Force Base in Fairfield, California, relies on fuel moving through that same system. With Benicia idled, the base would face increased reliance on imported fuel, driving up costs, complicating logistics, and introducing national security risks that are rarely acknowledged when policymakers debate climate targets.
A USC study warns California gas prices could reach $8 per gallon. With the Benicia refinery set to close in April, supply will tighten and prices could climb even higher.
— Senator Tony Strickland (@SenStricklandCA) January 28, 2026
This isn’t just an affordability issue. It's a national security concern. I’ve joined colleagues in calling… pic.twitter.com/niqLxHJQW4
Gas prices are cheaper today (in real dollars) than they were during @CAGovernor Gavin Newsom’s first month in office — in part because he called two special sessions Republicans voted against.
— Governor Newsom Press Office (@GovPressOffice) January 28, 2026
Now — after 2 years without price spikes at the pump — Republicans are asking for a… pic.twitter.com/xdbfgmv9zZ
A Gap Sacramento Refuses to Confront
At the center of California’s refining crisis is a question lawmakers avoid answering plainly: is there a functional replacement for oil before the state dismantles the system that still carries the load?
Oil remains central to transportation, freight, agriculture, construction, manufacturing, and the petrochemical feedstocks embedded in clothing, medical devices, pharmaceuticals, electronics, and sanitation.
Anyone who has worked around infrastructure understands this. Concrete does not pour itself. Steel does not fabricate itself. Heavy equipment does not run on intentions. Supply chains do not move on declarations.
Even the “clean energy” economy depends on petroleum. Wind turbines, solar panels, batteries, electric vehicles, and grid infrastructure all rely on petroleum-based materials and global shipping. And even if electrification accelerates, California still lacks the transmission capacity to move sufficient power to population centers.
Building that infrastructure will take decades.
The Shift Is Now Visible Inside Government
What makes this moment different is not only what refiners are doing. It is how regulators are responding.
California’s Air Resources Board has quietly adjusted its posture. In its latest revisions to the state’s carbon market, now branded as cap and invest, regulators opted for a more cautious approach. Market stability, affordability, and revenue certainty are now explicit priorities.
State officials have openly acknowledged that California is operating in a very different political and economic environment than it was just a few years ago. They are trying to avoid rattling markets because there is no buffer left.
That shift matters. It confirms what the infrastructure already shows.
When Capacity Shrinks, Infrastructure Follows
As refining capacity contracts, the infrastructure that supports it comes under stress. The PBF Energy refinery in Martinez is a clear example of how little redundancy now exists in Northern California’s fuel system.
Following a fire on February 1, 2025, the 157,000-barrel-per-day facility has been running at reduced capacity, generally between 85,000 and 105,000 barrels per day. Repairs have stretched far beyond initial timelines, with a return to full operations now expected in early March 2026.
That prolonged partial outage has already tightened supply in Northern California and removed another layer of redundancy.
The San Pablo Bay pipeline tells the same story. As refinery throughput declined, volumes on the line fell to levels that threatened its economic viability. California regulators have now stepped in to prevent a shutdown, approving emergency interim rate relief for the pipeline.
According to a draft resolution issued by the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC), the action allows shipping rates to increase by nearly 60% to avoid a suspension of pipeline operations.
This is what happens when capacity disappears faster than demand.
What Competent Leadership Looks Like
Competent leadership starts with an honest accounting of refining capacity and geographic concentration. It treats energy reliability, affordability, environmental protection, and national security as linked responsibilities.
Right now, California does none of this.
Residents of AD-66 live with the infrastructure. They bear the environmental risk. They absorb the economic consequences. And they are told disruption is the price of progress, even as the state fails to manage that disruption responsibly.
They did not ask to become ground zero for California’s energy contradictions. But they have. The refining reckoning has arrived. California can continue mistaking aspiration for execution, or it can start governing like a state that understands how systems work.
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