Missouri Judge Upholds GOP Redistricting Plan - but Supreme Court Showdown Looms

We've seen redistricting battles playing out across the country: Texas, California, Indiana, Virginia. On Thursday, a Missouri trial court upheld the state’s 2025 congressional redistricting map, giving the state's GOP a win — for now.

The ruling rejected claims that the map violates the Missouri Constitution’s compactness requirement, and Jackson County Circuit Court Judge Adam Caine declined to block the map from being used in future elections, meaning it remains in effect for now.

The decision resolves one part of the legal challenge, but leaves the most consequential question still unsettled, with key issues still pending before the Missouri Supreme Court in a separate case challenging the map.

In the Jackson County case, styled Wise v. State (combined with Healey v. State), Plaintiffs argued the new map fractures major population centers, particularly Kansas City. They contended the districts were insufficiently compact, thus violating the Missouri Constitution’s requirement that districts be “as compact as may be.”

The lawsuit was brought by voters and advocacy groups challenging the legislature’s mid-decade redraw of congressional districts. The primary criticism is that the map dilutes urban voting strength and was designed for partisan advantage. (Which prompts me to invite anyone with an electoral map not designed for partisan advantage to send it my way. That would be fascinating to see...) The court, ultimately, was not persuaded by those arguments.

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The crux of Judge Caine's ruling is this:

Redistricting statutes carry a strong presumption of validity.
Plaintiffs must show the law “clearly and undoubtedly” violates the Constitution.
Courts should not substitute their judgment for the legislature when multiple constitutionally valid maps could exist.
The court concluded the districts remain contiguous and reasonably compact, and therefore constitutional.

The decision of what municipalities to split is a political and policy determination that is properly left in the hands of the General Assembly and Missouri’s political processes. These are precisely the type of decisions that are “political in nature and best left to political leaders, not judges.” Pearson I, 359 S.W.3d at 39. In this case, the Court finds Plaintiffs failed to prove “clearly and undoubtedly” that the map was not “as compact . . . as maybe.” Pearson II, 367 S.W.3d at 69 (Fischer, J. concurring). Accordingly, this Court will not“ interfere with the political process” by finding the 2025 Plan unconstitutional. Faatz, 685 S.W.3d at 396.

The bottom line for the judge's decision here is that even if other maps might be more compact, that alone does not make the legislature’s map unconstitutional. But, as noted above, the ruling does not end the broader legal dispute.

The case involved more than one legal question. Judge Caine addressed the compactness challenge, but another major issue remains unresolved, namely, whether the Missouri legislature had the authority to redraw congressional districts mid-decade in the first place. That question is already before the Missouri Supreme Court in a separate proceeding, and the court heard oral argument on it on Tuesday. If the high court rules that mid-decade redistricting is impermissible, the map could still be invalidated regardless of the Jackson County compactness ruling.

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So, for now, the 2025 map remains in effect, and filing for the August primaries began on February 24 and continues through March 31. Unless a higher court intervenes in the interim, Missouri will likely conduct its upcoming elections using the new districts. It's hard to know how quickly the Missouri Supreme Court will issue its ruling on the matter, but let's just say it's best not to count those chickens just yet.

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