As I’ve noted before, during Donald Trump’s presidency, a panic began to set in among Democrats who understood that without a virtual lock on the “minority” vote, their chances of winning elections would become increasingly difficult to near-impossible in some cases, especially in battleground parts of the country.
The panic was in response to Trump making significant inroads with Hispanic voters during the course of his time in office, which was reflected in the 2020 election results which saw a noticeable shift in places where Hispanics who normally reliably went left instead turned to Trump and Republicans. There was evidence of this shift in the Gavin Newsom recall election effort as well, also reflected in the final results.
Unfortunately for Democrats, the hits just keep on coming on this front, with the latest confirmation that Hispanic voters are abandoning ship coming courtesy of a new Wall Street Journal poll that shows support among Hispanics between Republicans and Dems is now evenly split, with the driver being Hispanic men:
One year after giving Democratic House candidates more than 60% of their vote, according to polls at the time, the Journal survey found that Hispanic voters are evenly split in their choice for Congress. Asked which party they would back if the election were today, 37% of Hispanic voters said they would support the Republican congressional candidate and 37% said they would favor the Democrat, with 22% undecided.
Hispanic voters were also evenly divided when asked about a hypothetical rematch in 2024 of the last presidential contenders, with 44% saying they would back President Biden and 43% supporting former President Donald Trump. In 2020, Mr. Biden won 63% support among Hispanic voters, nearly 30 points more than Mr. Trump, according to AP VoteCast, a large survey of the presidential electorate.
This was on top of their findings on Independent support for Joe Biden, which has dropped a staggering 36 percent.
As close as elections get in some states and Congressional districts, Democrats can’t afford to lose a single Hispanic or Independent voter, and yet the slow but steady erosion has begun, starting during the Trump era and continuing on ever since. In fact, in states like Florida, the erosion in Hispanic support for Democrats has become so pronounced that some political observers have suggested the state might be lost to Democrats for the foreseeable future based in part on the Hispanic vote.
It goes without saying that none of this means Republicans should let their foot off the gas in terms of trying to make inroads in the Hispanic community by way of reframing (but NOT changing) the conservative message. What it does suggest, however, is the more “woke,” pro-abortion, anti-parent and anti-worker Democrats get, the more support they’re going to lose from Hispanics.
I’ve long asserted that Hispanic voters (as well as black voters) in reality have more in common with Republicans than they do Democrats. It’s just that Republicans have been lousy messengers at times with getting the word out in a way that connects with voters in different minority groups. They got better at it in the latter part of the Trump administration. Plus, it doesn’t hurt that Democrats keep lurching further left, which they’re now finding out the hard way is not appreciated by one of their core voting blocs.
Go woke, go broke — and lose support and then elections, as it turns out.