Though the effort to relieve California Dictator Gov. Gavin Newsom of his duties a little early did not go the way recall proponents wanted it to, all hope is not lost on the electoral front for Republicans because though Newsom will remain in office at least until the 2022 gubernatorial election, there are warning signs among the results from the recall (which are still coming in) that do not bode well for Democrats in the state and nationally going into the 2022 midterms.

Longtime polling analyst Dave Wasserman looked at the tea leaves among the incoming numbers for various competitive House districts in the state, and said the “Yes” numbers in some of them pointed to “an environment in which Republicans take back the House and Senate in 2022”:

Even though the recall resoundingly failed, "Yes" is on track to prevail in a handful of competitive House districts, including in Orange County.

Even a 20-25% "No" margin statewide could be consistent w/ an environment in which Republicans take back the House & Senate in 2022.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) September 15, 2021

In a follow-up tweet, he emphasized putting “off-year races in context,” noting that the “same ~5 pt swing right from the 2020 Biden/Trump margin would easily win Rs the House & Senate in 2022”:

I can't overstate the need to put these off-year races in context. If Newsom survives by 25% (?) and McAuliffe were to win by 5%, they'd be spun as big Dem wins.

But that same ~5 pt swing right from the 2020 Biden/Trump margin would easily win Rs the House & Senate in 2022.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) September 15, 2021

Beyond Wasserman’s analysis was polling/election numbers cruncher Nate Cohn, who pointed to the fact that Newsom’s Latino support was nothing to write home about:

According to the California exit poll, Newsom fared better among white college graduates than nonwhite voters in the state.
Newsom isn't even faring better among Latino than non-Latino voters pic.twitter.com/5nLkMnWcvg

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) September 15, 2021

This dovetails with what we’ve seen in states like Texas, where Democrats are seeing a steady, persistent drop in support among Latino voters. In a column published today at the Washington Post, Mexican journalist León Krauze fretted about what Newsom’s tepid support among Latino males would mean for him in next year’s gubernatorial election:

If exit poll numbers hold, Newsom will have seen an eight percentage point drop in support among Latino men. The shift might not seem sizable, but it carries a clear warning: Latino men have been moving steadily to the right. Their growing support of Donald Trump in Texas in 2021 and their recent drift away from Newsom fits a larger trend. Newsom may have survived to serve out his term, but California’s next gubernatorial election is just around the corner. Next year, Larry Elder, the controversial talk-show host who would have become governor had Newsom lost the recall, could be on the ballot. Despite Elder’s Trumpist rhetoric on immigration and race, and his public sympathy for the likes of Stephen Miller, 58 percent of Latino men voted for him on Tuesday, more than any other demographic.

Adding to the 2022 woes for Democrats is the issue of redistricting, where the advantage clearly resides with Republican-controlled state legislatures:

NEW: The Trump era created tons of possible new pickups for House Ds — but many will disappear in new maps

Rs easily shored up #IN05. Up next: #MO02 #SC01 #OK05 #UT04 #KY06 #TX24 etc

The shrinking battlefield leaves Ds a narrow path to hold the House https://t.co/r4yWc5G8s4

— Ally Mutnick (@allymutnick) September 15, 2021

And finally, let’s not forget how President Joe Biden’s approval numbers have absolutely cratered over the last few weeks, with the tumbling showing no end in sight. He dipped down below 40% for the first time in an Economist/YouGov poll last week, and that poll was heavily weighted towards Democrats. That same poll also showed a majority of Americans were not happy with the direction the country was headed, which generally means catastrophic midterms are ahead for the President’s party assuming those views stay consistent or get worse as Election Day nears.

Of course, a lot could happen between now and then, but the writing is on the wall for Democrats. And while Republicans shouldn’t get too cocky, they should be encouraged by the implosion currently taking place in the Democratic party, and take full advantage of it from here to Election Day 2022 – and beyond.

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