Now Down to Just a Few Hundred Thousand Ballots in Pennsylvania -- Pres. Trump's Margin Should Hold

AP Photo/Matt Slocum

There are 9 million registered voters in Pennsylvania for 2020.

In 2016, there were 6.12 million votes cast.

As of 6:00 pm ET on 11/4, both the NYT and Decision Desk are reporting 6 million votes have been counted in Pennsylvania. That is only 120,000 fewer than were counted in total in 2016.


Here are the historical voter participation rates for Pennsylvania for the last 5 elections:

2016:  8.72 million registered voters, 6.12 million votes — 70%

2012:  8.51 million registered voters, 5.74 million votes — 67%

2008:  8.76 million registered voters, 6 million votes — 68%

2004:  8.37 million registered voters, 5.77 million votes — 69%

2000:  7.78 million registered voters, 4.92 million votes — 63%

See a pattern?

There were 9,091,000 registered voters this month.  The high watermark in the past 4 election cycles was 70% voter participation. That same percentage in 2020 would be 6.3 million votes — which would be a record turnout.  That would mean there are only a little more than 400,000 votes left — but the number seems higher looking at the individual counties, so turnout will be higher than 70%.

But let’s make voter participation 75% for 2020, which would be a vote total of 6.8 million.  It will be truly astonishing if the turnout goes much higher than 6.8 million, and that will require some very careful analysis at which counties so dramatically increased their voter participation numbers in 2016 and 2012 — because that is where you will find the fraud.

That means there are 800,000 votes left to be counted at 75% voter participation — very unlikely.

Trump currently leads by 277,000 votes. Biden needs those 800,000 million votes to break in the neighborhood of 550,000 to 250,000 for him to steal Pennsylvania. That is 69%.


Montgomery County is currently reporting 460,000 votes cast according to the NYT. There were 434,000 votes cast in Montgomery County in 2016, and there are only 610,000 registered voters.  At 75% participation, that is  457,000 votes. That means Montgomery County should be done at 75% voter participation. Going much higher is going to be a huge red flag.

Philadephia County is currently reporting 570,000 votes cast. In 2016 there were 707,000 votes cast in Philadelphia County. There are 1.13 million registered voters in Philadephia County in 2020.  If you factor in 70% participation — which would be HUGE by Philly standards — that would mean a total vote of around 790,000 votes. That means there are another 220,000 votes left to come in. Biden is currently winning Philadelphia County 78% to 21%.

If those percentages hold, Biden is done in Montgomery County, and he would net +170,000 in Philadelphia County. But only if total turnout is a massive 70% there. And that would be an indicator of fraud.

That would leave Biden still 107,000 votes shy.

There are a couple of other Biden Counties with a sizeable number of votes left.

Allegheny County right now is reporting 620,000 votes counted. There are 942,000 registered voters, and 70% participation would be 660,000 votes.  With 620,000 reported, there are only around 40,000 votes left to count. Biden is winning Allegheny County 57% to 40%, but even if you bump up the remainder to 60-35, that’s only 12,000 more votes net.


That leaves him still close to 100,000 votes behind.

Deleware County is another Biden county still counting voters. Total registration was 425,000, and 70% participation would be around 295,000.  Right now, they are reporting 270,000 votes, with Biden leading 60-38.  If you split the remaining 25,000 votes 70-25, that’s only another net +10,000.

According to the NYT, there are still some Trump counties with a decent number of votes yet to be counted, where Trump has huge margins. These might all be mailed-in ballots that skew in Biden’s favor, but there will certainly be Trump votes that push him towards 3.30 million which seems like the magic number.

Examples as of 6:15 pm ET:

Monroe — 18,000 votes left, Trump is +25%.

Cumberland — 34,000 votes left, Trump is +42%

Butler — 23,000 votes left, Trump is +58%

Westmoreland — 20,000 votes left, Trump is +35%.

None of this accounts for massive fraud.

But I’ll show you in my next article where that might just be happening today.



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