Excuse Me While I Call BS: In Arizona

AP Photo/Matt York

During the course of the last few weeks, I have covered Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia.  Each of those states had a pattern:  Old, White voters in white, suburban counties, who didn’t show up to vote for Obama, allegedly suddenly showed up at a rate, never-before-seen, to vote for Joe Biden.

At least that’s how the story goes.  It lays out a very precarious, dichotomous situation for the left.  Either these voters didn’t show up for Obama, OR it is fraud at an unprecedented scale (or both).  It isn’t like Nursing Home Joe is different from his former boss in either policy or structure, so there’s essentially only one reason they didn’t show up, and it likely has something to do with Obama’s ethnic background.  Not a dislike for Trump, which again isn’t unique to this election cycle (people didn’t like Trump in 2016); so, to have these massive jumps in turnout seems, to be frank, is unlikely at best and impossible at worst.

As we continue our analysis, this time diving into Arizona, it is apparent that Trump did better amongst minorities than he did in 2016, which should have delivered him the Presidency.  In fact, absent white liberal voters showing up at the rate they did, Trump would have been reelected.

Compared to other states, Arizona was rather easy to look at compared to the other states I have analyzed up until this point, as Arizona only has 15 counties.  Overall, the data continues to show that Trump did better more broadly across the country, while Biden overperformed in a very small segment of people:  Old, White Men. Arizona registers according to party, which unlike Georgia and other states, gives us the ability to determine which party had a higher turnout overall.  For instance, we can tell that since 2016, Democrats have outpaced Republican voter registrations by 18,000 voters statewide, 287,001, to 269,164.  Despite this gain, Republicans still maintain an approximate 130,000 vote advantage in the state.  Even Independents outnumber Democrats in the state by 16,000 voters.

In six Arizona counties, there are fewer Democrat voters than there were in 2012; however, in just one, Maricopa, the home of the greater Phoenix area, made a hard left turn over the course of the last 8 years.  Why, you may ask?  Likely because of liberal state escapees, who left California and others for the exploding Phoenix job market  (because they were unable to find work in their struggling home states) and brought with them their horrible, horrible voting tendencies. Since 2012, Maricopa has added a total of 777,440 voters the majority going to Democrats at 304,803 voters.  It isn’t the growth that I have a problem with necessarily.  That is the believable part.  To see a city, flooded with out-of-state move-ins, who vote like they never left their liberal roots, isn’t surprising.

Maricopa’s surprise comes in the fact that they turned out 438,486 (a 72.80% increase) more voters for Biden than they did for Obama did in 2012.  Of course, we can factor for 100% turnout for new Democrats in the county since 2012 and still fall short of that number.  Even more shocking is that Biden overperformed Clinton by 337,000 votes, despite Democrats only adding 196,658 since 2016.  To put that in perspective, Democrats would have had to turn out every voter that turned out in 2012 and 2016, have 100% turnout from ALL new Democrat and Independent voters that have registered since 2016, and still go back to the trough to turn out another 52,054 voters in a county, where Trump ALSO turned out an additional 147,743 voters over 2016.  Essentially, to believe this, Democrats would have to have had overperformed Republicans in Maricopa County (in their respective party turnouts) by 26%.  I don’t care how energized your base is.  This just doesn’t happen, and it certainly doesn’t happen when that candidate trails the other candidate in enthusiasm by 20 points.  I call BS.

In fact, of Arizona’s 15 counties Republicans outperformed increases by Democrats’ 2012 performance in all but three.  Democrats’ increases outpaced Republicans in just Coconino, Maricopa, and Pima Counties, with Maricopa being the largest by more than 12 points, with that 26 point performance advantage.  If Maricopa was adjusted to the same level of gain over Republicans (at 18%), from the next highest county, Trump would have won Arizona.

Which brings us back to the dichotomous choice for the left.  Either Biden was “elected” by entitled, white leftists, or there were fraudulent activities (or both).  Biden’s win in every state analyzed to this point, Biden underperformed Obama in the majority of counties, sometimes not even factoring for population growth.  This idea that Biden’s potential election was a mandate is hogwash.  In fact, absent 70,000 votes in 10 counties in three states, Trump would have been reelected.  When factored for all counties that match these giant jumps in performance for Biden, Trump not only would have won, he likely would have picked up Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona.