David Shor, a Democrat data scientist and political consultant renowned for analyzing political polls, has disproven any notion that Kamala Harris lost the 2024 presidential election due to low voter turnout.

Shor, who currently heads data science analysis at Blue Rose Research in New York City, recently discussed the election data he and his team amassed with Vox senior correspondent Eric Levitz.

Democrats have contended, among many other theories, that Harris was the victim of low voter turnout. How, they wondered, could she have won when the number of votes for the Democrat candidate dropped from roughly 81,000,000 (allegedly) to just over 75,000,000?

She couldn't. Turnout was the key. Such a claim, after all, allows the resistance party to continually cry foul about imaginary efforts by the GOP to suppress votes.

Take this lead by New York Times political correspondent Michael Bendor, for example:

Voters in liberal strongholds across the country, from city centers to suburban stretches, failed to show up to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris at the levels they had for Joseph R. Biden Jr. four years earlier, contributing significantly to her defeat by Donald J. Trump, according to a New York Times analysis of preliminary election data.

That is not the case, says Shor, after diving deeper into the data, with the benefit of added hindsight.

Shor, described by Levitz as "the most influential data scientist in the Democratic Party," refutes the theory that voter turnout would have helped give Harris the edge.

"The reality is if all registered voters had turned out, then Donald Trump would’ve won the popular vote by 5 points [instead of the roughly 1.6+ points]," he explained. 

"So, I think that a 'we need to turn up the temperature and mobilize everyone' strategy would’ve made things worse."

Excited to join @ezraklein to talk through what happened in 2024.

There's a turnout story this cycle, but not the one we're used to talking about. With less-engaged and less-likely voters becoming more Republican, a larger turnout meant a more GOP electorate. pic.twitter.com/MtqDpIst93

— David Shor (@davidshor) March 18, 2025

RELATED: Kamala Campaign Blew Through Staggering Amounts of Cash on Private Jets to Mobilize Voter Turnout

Shor reiterated the claim in a separate interview with the New York Times, the same outlet mentioned above who pushed the theory that turnout sunk Harris's campaign.

"For a long time, Democrats have said, and it’s been true, that if everyone votes, we win, and that higher turnout is good for Democrats. But this is the first cycle where that definitively became the opposite," he surmised.

"If everyone had voted, Trump would have won the popular vote by nearly five points."

if you read one thing about US politics today I really do think it should be this Q&A between @EricLevitz and @davidshorhttps://t.co/FRUAQd3rlR

— Rachel Cohen (@rmc031) March 18, 2025

All of this drives a wedge into Democrat theories regarding the 2024 election. The idea that if only their lazy voting base had gotten up off the couch and to the polls, Kamala would be decorating the Oval Office, not Trump.

Michael Podhorzer, for instance, a prominent Democratic data expert and former political director of the AFL-CIO, argued that Harris’s defeat stemmed from a collapse in Democratic turnout rather than a surge in support for the GOP nominee.

"America didn’t swing rightward, but couchward," he opined in a substack newsletter published in early January.

Podhorzer went on to suggest that voter turnout in deep blue areas dropped because the threat that Trump posed was merely "theoretical," a notion that, if true, would have had little effect on the electoral vote count.

Joel Benenson, chief pollster for Barack Obama’s campaigns, also played the low voter turnout card in his election autopsy. He believes Democrats' lack of a primary process to elect Harris hurt energy levels.

The energy, by contrast, was all Trump's on that November Election Day. If the energy were just a little higher, it would have resulted in an even more significant landslide for the two-term President.

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