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Here's More Evidence the Iranian Regime Is Fracturing and in Trouble as Trump Holds Its Feet to the Fire

AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein

On Friday, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi announced Iran was opening the Strait of Hormuz. 

President Donald Trump confirmed what Iran said. 

As we said, it was an effort to save face since the U.S. was already blockading the Strait against any ships going in and out, and allowing all the other ships to go through. 

Then, Iran being Iran, the Parliament Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf pulled it back later in the day, saying that if the U.S. continued the blockade, the Strait would not remain open. He also said that ships could travel only through Iran's approved route with its permission. While some ships were turning back, as we noted, some ships, even a cruise ship, were passing through along the non-approved southern route, despite whatever the Iranians were saying. 

Then, too, there were also reports that Iran fired on some of the ships.


READ MORE: Iran’s Face-Saving Strait Spin Gets Upstaged by a Cruise Ship

 Iranian Official Says Strait of Hormuz Is Closed Again Because Trump Violated the Deal


It looked like they were trying to play games again. But the bottom line is that time is not on their side. As we reported before, they're losing hundreds of millions of dollars a day. 

Money that's supposed to prop up the IRGC and to keep their proxies alive, as former Army intelligence officer Chuck DeVore explained to Fox's Jesse Watters.

"Without that stream of money, Hezbollah dies on the vine, Hamas dies on the vine, and the Houthi rebels die on the vine," DeVore said. 

Since they also no longer have the manufacturing facilities for the missiles, that also "significantly defangs those Iranian proxies" as well, he said. He thought we were "on the verge of a significantly remade Middle East" that would benefit the U.S. and its allies. 

So even if the regime plays this game, it's a heads I win, tails you lose game for Trump against Iran. And if they're firing on ships, then the U.S. is likely to just resume hitting them again. 

Watters wondered how they could not immediately surrender, under the circumstances. 

DeVore believed part of the problem is that the leadership is so fractured that they can't be assured that they wouldn't be executed by the IRGC when they go home, if the IRGC decides they don't like what they might agree to. 

So while Ghalibaf is playing games, it may be a very real necessity on his part - to protect him from getting taken out by the IRGC. 

If it wasn't clear what a mess their leadership is in, Tasnim, the news agency associated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), attacked Araghchi on their Farsi X account for his initial announcement about the opening of the Strait, complaining he created a problem because he didn't speak against the U.S. blockade. Here's a translation of some of the rant. 

Bad and Incomplete Tweet by Araghchi and Incorrect Ambiguity-Creation Regarding the Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz 

Our country's Foreign Minister wrote in a tweet just minutes ago that, following the ceasefire in Lebanon, the Strait of Hormuz will be fully open for the passage of commercial ships for the remaining duration of the ceasefire period. [....]

Publishing this tweet, without any verbal explanation or at least sufficient written explanations, constitutes a complete lack of tact in communication. It is obvious that the Foreign Ministry itself must either reconsider this type of communication or the Secretariat of the Supreme National Security Council must fulfill its duty.

And while providing proper notifications in its own domain, it should create a more cohesive and better mechanism for notifications from some institutions, including the Foreign Ministry, and control them. The tweets that officials publish—even if they write them in English—are not seen only by foreign officials!

The great nation of Iran, too, is fully monitoring the scene in accordance with its revolutionary duty. Any attempt to create anxiety or despair among this divinely inspired nation constitutes political disobedience and disruption of national unity.

You have to think that has to make Araghchi more than a little nervous. He hasn't tweeted since then. 

Of course, that raises the question of whether or not you get someone to truly sign on the dotted line and stick to it, when all you have is a "rump regime," as DeVore termed it, with questionable authority and chaos at the top. At this point, do they even know who is in charge? So all they're left with is being on a suicidal path to refusing compromise. 

Then too, as DeVore noted, the other problem hanging out there like a sword of Damocles over the regime leadership is the Iranian people rising up and exacting a much-deserved revenge. The longer the regime strings things out as the economy and the country collapse, the more likely the people may act. 


READ MORE: Bessent Delivers Another Powerful Blow to Iran - Reveals What May Be Their 'Fatal Mistake'

Trump Has Iran Over a Barrel With the Blockade - and It's About to Get Worse for Them


Obviously, that would be the best result for the long-suffering people to take out the regime and take back the country. 

But this all just shows how the regime's position continues to crumble and back itself into a corner. 

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