Premium

Trump Has Iran Over a Barrel With the Blockade - and It's About to Get Worse for Them

AP Photo/Nathan Howard

As we reported, President Donald Trump imposed a blockade on ships going into or out of Iranian ports on Monday.

They've already announced that they blocked nine ships in the process in the first couple of days.


READ MORE: Iran Sounds Like It's Scrambling to Save Face in Response to Trump's Action in the Strait

CENTCOM Starts the Iranian Blockade Monday - Here Are the Rules and What to Look For


That will have a devastating impact on Iran's economy.

“An estimated 90% of Iran’s economy is fueled by international trade by sea. In less than 36 hours since the blockade was implemented, US forces have completely halted all economic trade going into and out of Iran by sea,” Adm. Brad Cooper said in a statement on social media.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) said earlier no vessels have breached the blockade since its implementation.

Meanwhile, all the non-Iranian port ships are free to transit when before they would have potentially been blocked by Iran, which will then help to restore a more normal flow.

The ships don't even have to be in the Strait; they can sit outside of it, for example, in the Gulf of Oman, to monitor what is going in and out. Tankers would move relatively slowly and be easy to track. That also makes it a little harder for Iran's fast speed boats to get to them. 

But not only is Trump holding Iran in check on the one card they have to play - to use the Strait as a chokehold - the president is also now putting their economy in a box. 

As we previously said, the Iranian economy was already in deep trouble. But the blockade made their situations so much worse, as Foundation for the Defense of Democracies senior fellow Miad Maleki explained, 

"It accounts for 70-80 percent of Iran's revenue, which it uses to run the government operations!" he said 
"It's the heart of Iran's economy."

The U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would cost Iran approximately $276M/day in lost exports and disrupt $159M/day in imports, a combined economic damage of ~$435M/day, or $13B/month. Over 90% of Iran's $109.7B in annual trade transits the Persian Gulf. Oil/gas accounts for 80% of government export earnings and 23.7% of GDP. Kharg Island alone generates ~$53B/year, or as I noted to @TIME, "$78 billion a year in energy revenue.

That's not sustainable, no matter how lunatic you are and how much you deny reality. 

We previously mentioned how the Iranian President, Masoud Pezeshkian, was warning if they didn't make a deal, they would be facing collapse within weeks. Now, there's another report; he's freaking out. 

Breaking | Exclusive:

After the Iranian delegation returned from Pakistan empty-handed - President Pezeshkian erupted, shouting at members of the delegation.

In an exclusive quote obtained by us, he told associates:

“We are weeks away from collapse. They are cutting off our main source of income - I don’t know how we will pay salaries.”

According to my sources, Pezeshkian is on the verge of a nervous breakdown and is demanding a deal - at any cost.

Whether or not the report about Pezeshkian is true, the economic outlook is grim if this continues. 


READ MORE: Iran's Diminishing Options: How Its Miscalculation and Trump Pressure Are Bringing Surprising Results

About Those 'Fractures' in Iranian Leadership


Trump has them over a barrel at this point. Either this will force the Iranian regime back to a real deal in negotiations, or it will force a collapse. And that can give greater impetus to the people to rise for regime change. A win-win either way, deal or destruction of the regime. 

Recommended

Trending on RedState Videos