What will the impact of the guilty verdict in the Manhattan case be? 

I wrote earlier about how you had people who don't like Trump saying they are now going to vote for him. I saw many of them on X. You had people saying they were going to donate or had donated whatever they could, and the Trump team is now saying they've gotten a ton of money in since the verdict came down. 

But what will the impact on the election be? 

We saw in the NPR/Marist poll taken prior to the verdict that there was likely to be no impact. 

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But now, after the verdict, J.L. Partners has taken a poll of likely voters for the Daily Mail. Prepare for the Democrats to pull their hair out over this one. We warned them. 

Of those who said the 34 guilty counts had changed their view of Donald Trump, 22 percent said they now had a more favorable rating compared with 16 percent who said they viewed him more negatively.

That six-point net positive result is another sign of the way the businessman-turned-politician seems able to ride out crises that would sink anyone else. [....]

In particular, the numbers show a four-point net positive impact among independent voters, the group that could decide who is the next president in November.

It's a small sample of 400 voters, so we'll have to see more polls as they come out. But this is consistent with the prior predictions. And not only does it give Trump a bump in the polling, the voters get it, as the pollster revealed. 

James Johnson, who conducted the poll, said Trump might be waking up as convicted felon but he was winning over the voters who matter.  

Our snap poll of a representative sample of likely voters shows that for most Americans the trial has not changed their deep-set views of Trump,' he said. 

'But amongst those who are open to changing their mind, people feel more positive by a margin of 6 points. That is outside of the margin of the error of the poll and we are saying that is significant.

'It extends to Independent voters too. Look at the explanations and it is clear why: people feel it was a politically motivated trial and view Trump as a "fighter" against what they see as injustice.

That matches the move I was seeing on the X platform of many folks who said this had moved them to vote for Trump because they could not abide the injustice that had been done here. And people who were supportive were breaking out the money to donate, some for the first time ever. 

Democrats got what they wanted with a "conviction." Joe Biden will no doubt talk about it again and maybe even use it to get out of the debates. But they didn't pay attention to how the lawfare backfired on them before this. And it looks like it may be about to do that to them again. 

Bigly. 

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