Prepare for the incoming red wave, because we just got more signs that, if the numbers hold, it’s going to be big.
I wrote a week ago about the Fox poll that had the Republicans up by three points in the generic ballot. According to the Fox News models, that advantage would translate to a GOP win, with a gain of 23 seats.
Now, other polls are coming in even higher than that.
First, we have the Trafalgar Group poll on the generic Congressional ballot. That has the Republicans up by more than eight points among likely voters, Republicans 48.3 percent to Democrats 40.2.
Republicans hold 8-POINT lead over Democrats in 2022 Generic Congressional Ballot poll by Trafalgar Group
Republicans 48% (+8)
Democrats 40%N=1,085 LV / 07/20-22 / D39/R36/I25https://t.co/5xMOB2qpsr pic.twitter.com/wnokft3pJr
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 24, 2022
That’s with even a greater percentage of Democrats being polled than Republicans, with Democrats 39 percent, Republicans 36 percent, and independents 25 percent.
It’s not just the Trafalgar poll. The Rasmussen poll for the generic ballot just went up by two points for the Republicans over what it was last week; now, it’s in amazing double-digits for the Republicans over the Democrats, 49 percent to 39 percent.
NEW: @Rasmussen_Poll | 07/17-07/21
2022 Generic Congressional Ballot
Republicans 49% (+10)
Democrats 39%Independents
Republicans 44% (+17)
Democrats 27%GOP lead is up 2 points from last week
N=2,500 LV | Sample: D35/R33/I32https://t.co/rUpyJ761Ze pic.twitter.com/d7spFwigHi
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 22, 2022
There’s also another poll specifically on the Arizona Congressional ballot by CD/Big Data and that has Republicans leading by nine points.
🚨 NEW ARIZONA POLL by CD Media & @BigDataPoll
2022 Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 49% (+9)
Democrats 40%Independents:
Republicans 44% (+14)
Democrats 30%Maricopa County:
Republicans 50% (+11)
Democrats 39%N=1,298 LV / 07/16-18 https://t.co/q1rJVXDFW9 pic.twitter.com/ozzGm2LfWc
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 24, 2022
As our sister site PJ Media reported:
The last time control of Congress changed hands, in 2018, Democrats held a seven-point generic Congressional ballot advantage among likely voters in July (47% to 40%). The spread tightened to a statistical dead heat by Election Day. When the dust settled, Republicans had increased their hold on the Senate while Democrats had won a slim majority in the House.
The Republican lead on the congressional ballot is due both to greater GOP partisan intensity and a 17-point advantage among independents. While 89% of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate, just 79% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, however, 44% would vote Republican and 27% would vote Democrat, while 10% would vote for some other candidate and 20% are undecided.
Another notable statistic from the latest Rasmussen poll is that 27% of black voters prefer a generic Republican candidate while 57% would vote for a Democrat. Other minorities are almost evenly split, with 41% preferring a Republican candidate and 44% choosing the Democrat. The generic Republican candidate enjoys a 21-point lead among white voters (55% to 34%).
So, we’re a month past the Roe decision–did that energize the Democrats? In the week after the decision, the Republicans were only up by five points in the Rasmussen poll; now, they’re up 10. With that added information to the following chart, the polls seem to be indicating the same thing on the subject, among likely voters.
2022 Generic Congressional Ballot Polling
AARP: GOP +4
NYT/Siena: GOP +1
Rasmussen: GOP +8
On Message: GOP +5
Insider Advantage: GOP +8
Momentive/Survey Monkey: GOP +8GOP Leads in EVERY POLL conducted after Dobbs among LIKELY VOTERS not registered voters or Adults pic.twitter.com/SEmDtvqEFs
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 20, 2022
Looks like the efforts with the Jan. 6 Committee show trial might be failing as well, given those numbers. As we said, that might cost Democrats more votes because people see them as more concerned about attacking their political opponents than doing the work of the American people. When the people are being crushed by Bidenflation, that’s a bad look.
Add that into polls that have Joe Biden hitting 29 percent approval, then wallowing around 30 and 31 percent, and you know it doesn’t look good for the Democrats.
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