We’ve been talking about how the polling has made a big move toward Youngkin in the governor’s race in Virginia over the past two weeks. The Real Clear Politics average of polls from the last week shows a move toward Youngkin. The RCP average now has Youngkin up at +1.7 pts.
(Click on picture to see polls.)
— Dr. Nickarama (@nickaramaOG) November 1, 2021
The latest poll — the Trafalgar Group poll — has Youngkin up 2.3 percent, with Youngkin at 49.4 and McAuliffe at 47.1. Trafalgar’s chief pollster said that could grow by Youngkin grabbing the late deciders as well because of Youngkin’s momentum and McAuliffe’s problems.
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) November 1, 2021
Trafalgar accurately predicted the win of President Donald Trump in 2016 when everyone else was predicting it would be Hillary.
But it also adds yet another poll to the movement to Youngkin on top of the Fox poll which had shown a big move toward Youngkin with an eight-point lead. That said, it’s still going to be a tight race and that’s why McAuliffe has been so desperate to throw anything up against the wall to try to move it back in his direction.
At a time when McAuliffe should be wrapping up his pitch as to why you should vote for him, he’s been concentrating on being nasty not only to his opponent but to voters with whom he disagrees, calling them racist. He’s also having to deal with his supporters pulling dirty tricks on Youngkin and his spokesperson being accused of old racist tweets.
McAuliffe’s last pitch to the voters was a racist one, complaining that 80 percent of the public school teachers in Virginia are white. He said they needed to “diversify their teacher base,” making clear their focus would be on the race of the teacher. He’s also doubled down on his position that parents shouldn’t have a say in their children’s education in the state — a position that has precipitated his slide. Meanwhile, Youngkin is concentrating on the issues and pushing the much more popular — and sane — position that parents have a vital say in the education of their children.
So, in the final analysis, the voters have the choice between an outsider focusing on the issues they care about and a Democratic operative who can’t stop pushing identity politics. It’s not hard to understand why there has been such a move away from McAuliffe.