Gallup plays greatest practical joke on Democrats since Woodrow Wilson candidacy.

Look at this title and subtitle: great news for Democrats, right?

2012 U.S. Electorate Looks Like 2008

Composition of electorate by race, age, gender essentially the same


Yup, horrible news… wait a second.  Notice what’s missing from that subtitle?  As in, what rather important category?  For an election?  You know… political affiliation?

Yeah, well, there’s a reason for that.

In 2008, Gallup had the electorate in as being +10 Democrat (+12 Democrat, with leaners).  Right now, they’re forecasting it as being +1 Republican (+3 Republican, with leaners).  Which means that by the most important criterion of the Presidential election 2012 is not like 2008 at all: it’s like 2004 (+2 Republican/even, with leaners).  Which means that the subtext of the title (“Democrats gonna win!”) is actually completely subverted by the implications of the data (“Democrats gonna lose!”).

I take some pleasure in being an aggravating so-and-so to the Online Left, but I have to say: this is epic trolling by Gallup.  I would like to think that I could come up with something this contemptuously brilliant, but I am forced to admit that I am unsure that I could pull it off.

Moe Lane (crosspost)


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